March Madness Upsets by Round – What Round Produces the Most Upsets?
The insane number of March Madness upsets each year is what makes the NCAAB Division 1 Tournament so exciting! But what round produces the most surprising wins?
We collected data from all tournament editions in the 21st century to find out. Let’s explore the numbers together to find out what March Madness round produces the most upsets.
Total Number of Upsets Per Round in March Madness
Here are the percentage and total number of March Madness upsets per round since 2003, we explain our methodology below:
| Round | Total Upsets (Total Games) | Upset % |
|---|---|---|
| First Round | 138 (672) | 20.54% |
| Second Round | 69 (336) | 20.54% |
| Sweet 16 | 37 (168) | 20.02% |
| Elite 8 | 16 (84) | 19.05% |
| Final 4 | 6 (42) | 14.3% |
| Championship Game | 2 (21) | 9.5% |
It’s remarkable how the early rounds consistently produce upsets at a similar rate. In fact, the first two rounds produced the same percentage of upsets in that period of 21 years, 20.54%, while the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 were also very close.
Naturally, there’s a bit of a drop-off in the Final 4 and Championship games, but many of these are too close for an upset to begin with.
Let’s talk about methodology and sources next, so you understand the data better.
Final Four and Championship Games Methodology and Sources
For Final Four and Championship games, we used the betting lines of the bookies as the starting point. We only found data going back to 2003, which is the reason our study started there.
We only considered an upset a game where the underdog entered the game with +4 points or more in the spread. If the spread was lower than that, we consider the game too close for an upset to be even possible.
That resulted in a total of 6 upsets in the Final Four, and another 2 upsets that fit our criteria in the National Championship.
We used articles on USA Today, Fox Sports, and BoydBets to collect the spread data.
1st, 2nd Round, Sweet 16, Elite 8 Methodology and Sources
Finding spread lines for all games back to 2003 proved to be an impossible task, so we had to improvise for the first rounds. We decided to go by seeds, and only consider an upset games where the difference in seeds is 3 or higher.
We consider games with a smaller difference too close, so we ignored them. We used the official NCAA website for data.
Now that you know what we did, let’s discuss each round separately.
March Madness First Round Upsets
The first two days of the NCAA Tournament are a breeding ground for upsets, as our experiment of betting on March Madness underdogs showed in 2024. Since 2000, there is an average upset rate of 20.54%, with a high of 31.25% in 2016. In that year, there were ten upsets in the opening round over Thursday and Friday. One #2 seed fell, along with a #3, #4, two #5 seeds, three #6 seeds, and two #7 seeds. The biggest upset was #15 Middle Tennessee taking down #2 Michigan State by a score of 90-81. It should also be noted that 2016 featured the first #1 seed to be eliminated in the first round as #16 UMBC pounded #1 seed Virginia to make NCAA Tournament history! It looks like March Madness is somehow getting even madder recently, at least early on.March Madness Second Round Upsets
The second round is, remarkable, exactly equal to the first round in percentage of upsets. We again have 20.54% rate, which equals 69 upsets in total since 2003. The record here came in 2021, with 9 total upsets in that round. #8 Loyola Chicago defeated took down the first #1 seed of the tournament, Illinois, by a score of 71-58 to lead the second-round upsets that year. It’s still a very dangerous round, with many favorites of the best March Madness betting sites going home before the Sweet 16.March Madness Sweet 16 Upsets
The average upset rate jumps slightly to 22.02% for the Sweet 16, with 2022 especially nasty for the favorites. 4 out of the 8 games in that season produced upsets, and we’ve seen at least 2 upsets each year since 2021. It looks like the favorites should be very careful in this round nowadays!March Madness Elite 8 Upsets
The Elite Eight has produced a slightly lower upset rate at 19.05%. In 2023, 2014, and 2011 we had 2 out of 4 upsets each, making these the most productive years for upsets. However, 8 of the 21 season we explored produced no upsets in this round, so this is one of the safer ones for the big guns!March Madness Final Four Upsets
There’s a huge drop off in the Final Four because many of the games are too close to produce an upset based on our criteria. Still, Six teams that were 4-point+ underdogs have upsets the odds to win and reach the Championship Game, good enough for 14.3%! It’s interesting to note that we haven’t had such an upset in the Final Four since 2022 and we’ve never had two teams upset the Final Four odds in the same year.March Madness Championship Game Upsets
The Championship Game has produced the least number of upsets, with only two teams overcoming a 4-point spread or higher to win (9.5%). That happened in 2003 and 2021, but it must be mentioned that 9 of the 21 years we checked were too close for an upset to be possible because the point spread was very close.What Years Produced the Most March Madness Upsets Since 2003?
| Year | Number of Upsets |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 |
| 2014, 2022 | 17 |
| 2010 | 16 |
| 2006, 2011 | 15 |
2021 was the wildest year so far, producing a total of 19 upsets! We saw 9 in the first round, and the trend continued until the final where Baylor blew out Gonzaga by 16 points, despite entering the game as a 4.5-point underdog.
2014 and 2022 produced 17 upsets each, closely followed by 2010 (16), as well as 2006 and 2011 (15 each). Overal, 18 of the 21 years in our study produced at least 10 upsets, so you can except a lot of action every year!
How to Spot March Madness Upsets?
If you’re looking to bet on March Madness underdogs, it’s best to get it out of the way in the first two rounds. There is a high level of volatility over these first four days of the NCAA Tournament. For example, look at the 5-12 and 6–11 games for a first-round upset. Since 1985, #12 seeds have beaten #5 seeds 35% of the time, while #11 seeds have won 39.1% of the time over a #6 seed. The top four seeds will usually get a scare in the first round, but they usually pull it out.
You can also use tools, such as our TSG AI picks model, which goes through the current data and gives you a prediction. This does a lot of the work for you, and makes things easier, considering the sheer number of games you’re trying to handicap. Let the technology do the work for you!
It’s also important to find a bookmaker that offers high odds on potential upsets. Based on our experience betting on all March Madness underdogs in 2024 and 2025, BetOnline often has the highest price for upsets.
