Is blackjack a game of luck or skill? The quick answer would be that the popular card game is both, as making the right choices improves your odds but doesn’t entirely eliminate the luck factor.
I explain why and share my take on whether blackjack is luck or skill in this article. I start from the fundamentals that apply to all types of blackjack and then provide an overview of how the type of 21 you’re playing affects the blackjack skill vs. luck ratio.
When Is Luck Involved in Blackjack?
All forms of gambling include luck to some degree. In blackjack, some unpredictable elements that players must overcome are the quality of their starting hands, the side bets in the variation they are playing, and potential mistakes made by the dealer.
1. Quality of Starting Hand
The quality of your starting hand in blackjack can make or break your chances of winning a given round. Strong starting hands increase your odds of winning, and if you are dealt a blackjack, you could even win immediately.
On the other hand, a weak or unfavorable starting hand can be challenging, sometimes impossible to overcome. This is especially true if the dealer has a strong hand. For instance, even the best blackjack players will lose if the dealer has blackjack.
You have no control over your starting hand, so that’s one of the aspects of the game that’s entirely down to luck.
2. Extra Cards
The same principle applies to the cards you get, when you decide to double, hit, or split. Even if you made the right play by following the correct blackjack strategy and have an extra edge because you’re counting cards, there are no guarantees.
Every single card you get is down to pure luck, at least when it comes to the short term. In the long run, your decisions will definitely make a difference, but more about that in the strategy section.
3. Dealer Mistakes
Most people who enjoy real money online blackjack do not need to be concerned with dealer mistakes. However, if you play live dealer blackjack or blackjack at a brick-and-mortar casino, then dealer mistakes could affect your experience.
Well-trained and experienced dealers are unlikely to make mistakes, but they are still human. Some errors, such as allowing players to see the front of cards being placed face down, can greatly benefit the player.
Hole carding is easier said than done, and your opportunities to do it will be limited. However, as the saying goes, luck happens when preparation meets opportunity. If you are lucky enough to take advantage of the rare dealer mistake, you can significantly improve your chances of winning.
Why Blackjack Is Also a Game of Skill
Some casino games, such as slot games, are purely games of chance, as players cannot influence the outcome. Conversely, blackjack is a game of skill. While there is still a luck element to the game, players can affect the outcome in various ways.
1. Winning Strategies Increase RTP
One of the best arguments for blackjack being about skill and not luck is that experienced players have better odds of winning. As you play blackjack, you master the top strategies for winning consistently.
You cannot win every hand, but you can affect your RTP (Return to Player) and achieve better results. Picking the right action on every hand could lead to the maximum theoretical RTP of the variant you’re playing, which is usually 99% or higher.
In comparison, average players who don’t know when to split aces, hit, stand, or double optimally will be playing with a RTP closer to 95%. That’s a five times higher house edge for the casino!
2. You Can Avoid Common Gambling Mistakes
The best blackjack strategies can help you improve your chances of beating the casino. Likewise, committing mistakes that are common with inexperienced or unskilled players will lower your odds of winning.
There are many mistakes that new players make, and some of the most common include:
- Chasing losses
- Betting on high-risk side bets
- Playing at low-paying tables
As you become a more skilled blackjack player, you will be less likely to commit these common errors. You will also be able to recognize bad bets that you need to avoid. Insurance, for instance, is a standard side bet that many players make the mistake of betting on.
3. Card Counting
Counting cards in blackjack can be challenging for multiple reasons, most notably because all live casinos try to actively prevent it. However, it’s still theoretically possible to follow the cards and find an extra edge for yourself.
It’s another way to influence the outcomes and could even flip the odds in your favor. That’s the ideal scenario, of course, but it’s impossible in online blackjack (live dealer games aside).
4. Picking the Best Variant Improves Your Results
Where you choose to play blackjack will significantly impact your overall experience. The different rules impact the house edge, so sticking to more favorable tables can lead to better results.
It is easier for online players to find rewarding blackjack games. You can find information about the game’s payout table, including how much you win for a natural blackjack. Researching information about the house edge for different side bets is also easier when you are playing online.
Land-based blackjack players can still find this information, but it can be more challenging. Regardless of where you play, you should focus on finding 3:2 blackjack tables to minimize the house edge. A 3:2 pay table combined with a winning strategy is the best way for skilled players to overcome the luck-based elements in blackjack.
And since I mentioned variants, let’s see how the type of blackjack you play affects the skill vs. luck balance in blackjack.
Types of Blackjack and How They Affect Luck/Skill
Blackjack is extremely popular at top casino sites and has been a mainstay at land-based casinos for decades. However, not every table is the same and you should always consider the circumstances to determine how much luck is involved.
Variation of Blackjack
There are dozens of variations of blackjack, even if the core rules are the same. Some of the popular types of blackjack available to modern-day players include:
- Perfect Pairs Blackjack
- Free Bet Blackjack
- 21 + 3 Blackjack
- Double Deck Blackjack
- Atlantic City Blackjack
Each variation has unique rules, which can change whether the game is about skill or luck. Generally speaking, the more decisions you have to make, the more skill is involved and vice versa.
Online vs. In-Person Blackjack
Another factor to consider when evaluating luck vs. skill in blackjack is where you are playing. If you go to a live casino, you can (in theory) count cards and flip the house in your favor.
In practice, the time and energy spent to get there and the casinos’ efforts to stop card counters make it tough to get the highest value.
That’s why we recommend online blackjack for real money to most players. The game is convenient, the limits are flexible, and you can usually grab a bonus.
Furthermore, blackjack is available at almost every online casino, so the variety of your disposal is fantastic. A good example is Bovada Casino, our recommended pick for blackjack. You can enjoy multiple digital and live-dealer tables, with the former available for free as well.
