Caleb Williams Odds

  • USC QB Caleb Williams reportedly wants a minority ownership stake in the NFL team that selects him in the NFL Draft.
  • In July, the NFL prohibited employees of teams from securing equity in franchises.
  • Williams’ 2023-24 Heisman Trophy odds tanked following a loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Caleb Williams reportedly has an interesting demand from NFL teams if they draft him: the star USC QB wants a partial ownership stake in their franchise.

On Wednesday, October 18, NBC Sports’ Mike Florio reported that the 2022-23 Heisman Trophy winner is seeking equity in an NFL team. According to BetOnline, the odds that Williams does not get an ownership stake is currently -2000.

The odds are heavily stacked against an NFL team granting Williams his demand. At -2000, the implied probability of this occurring is 95.2 percent. In our opinion, BetOnline’s odds are probably too generous, though.

The way we see it, Williams probably has less than a 1-percent chance of getting his wish. There is little chance that a franchise will open up this Pandora’s Box. As soon as one player receives an ownership take, every NFL agent will be phoning up teams looking for the same for their clients.

Rodgers’ Jets Ownership Request Rejected

Williams’ demand is not unique. After being traded to the New York Jets, Aaron Rodgers signed a two-year, $75 million contract. The restructured deal was a significant pay cut from his previous employer, as Rodgers was on a $110 million contract with the Green Bay Packers.

During his contract negotiations, Rodgers tried to throw in an interesting nugget into the terms of the deal: a partial ownership stake in the Jets. Rodgers wanted some equity in the franchise, but the offer was quickly rebuffed.

If Rodgers was successful, the contract would have reportedly replaced some of the cash in his deal. However, the Jets were not interested, and Rodgers was left with his two-year, $75 million contract.

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It was a bold move by Rodgers, and probably one that he and his agent, David Dunn, saw as an offer that had a small chance of succeeding.

That being said, the Jets were not going to rescind his contract either way, so it was a ‘can’t lose’ attempt. The worst they could say is ‘no’ and he receives the two-year, $75 million contract.

Regarding Williams, he has far less bargaining power than the four-time NFL MVP. If Rodgers can’t get the Jets to budge, what do you believe is going to happen with Williams’ apparent wild contract request?

Non-Family Employees Barred From Acquiring Equity

In July, the NFL officially banned employees of teams from gaining an equity stake in the franchises. As their assets continue to grow in evaluation, owners would prefer to avoid this situation with team employees.

According to the Sports Business Journal, the decision to prevent employees from having a share of ownership is multi-faceted:

  • Franchise values could be depressed if an employee leaves for another franchise.
  • Confidentiality. A former equity holder could leak information to their new team.
  • Differential treatment between employees and limited partners.
  • Competitive imbalance due to some franchises not being able to offer equity to employees.
  • Complexity regarding salary cap compliance.

As we noted, Williams has less than a 1-percent chance of pulling this off and gaining an equity stake. The NFL rules would have to change between now and when Williams is drafted.

Owners will not be interested in rescinding this policy, which directly benefits their NFL assets. This will be a non-starter for every team in the NFL. With that in mind, Williams can forget about the asinine contract stipulation now.

Williams’ Dad Said His Son Could Return To College

In July, Carl Williams stated that his son could skip the 2024 NFL Draft and return to USC next year. Carl Williams told GQ, “So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school”.

With Williams projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, his father is hinting at his son potentially being drafted by a dysfunctional franchise.

It’s true that many QBs have gone into the wrong situations, and they never developed properly. However, with Williams having millions in NIL deals to fall back on, a return to college could net him millions more from playing college football.

Following a 48-20 loss to Notre Dame on October 14, Williams’ Heisman Trophy odds regressed rapidly. The 21-year-old QB passed for 199 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions in the loss. Currently, Williams has the seventh-best odds to win the Heisman at +2000.

About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is Editor-in-Chief of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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