- Despite a faltering approval rating and support among Democrats, Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to complete his first term in the White House.
- Biden’s poll numbers have reached new lows, but he remains the clear favorite for being the 2024 Democratic nominee.
- Biden’s most significant risk threatening his presidency is concerns regarding his health and an impeachment inquiry from Republicans.
As we enter an election year, Joe Biden, 81, is facing mounting pressure from multiple fronts to improve his standing for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. That said, Biden isn’t expected to be going anywhere in the near future. According to Bovada, Biden has -750 odds to finish his first term as President.
Translated to a percentage, Biden owns an implied probability of 88.2 percent to finish his term. If you believe that Biden won’t make it to the end of the year, then you can back some generous odds at Bovada.
At +440, bettors can win $440 on a $100 wager if Biden drops out of his presidency. Biden has shown no willingness to resign, however. With that in mind, the most likely scenario for this to happen would be an impeachment or a medical emergency that prevents him from continuing.
As the oldest-ever President of the United States, declining health has come into the equation for many voters. However, the Biden Administration has shrugged off any criticism regarding his health and cognitive decline at every opportunity.
Currently, Biden is -270 of being the 2024 Democratic nominee. California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s odds of +500 suggest that Biden has a comfortable lead on the top challenger.
Doctor Claims Biden Could Be A ‘Superager’
In an op-ed written by S. Jay Olshansky, Ben Barns, and Dr. Bradley Wilcox, they claim that Biden could be what is known as a “superager”. This implies that Biden is not only of sound mind, but his brain could be younger than it is.
“The geriatricians evaluating Biden’s medical history in 2020 found no evidence to suggest that he could be a “superager” — a subgroup of people aged 80 years and older that operate physically and cognitively at a level that is common among those much younger.”
Additionally, the article states that in 2020 Biden had a 95 percent chance of making it through his first term. Now, per his current health, Biden has a 75 percent chance of completing a second term, roughly 10 percent better than an average man his age.
According to medical records published by the White House, Biden has cleared all necessary health checks and physicals to be able to carry out his duties as President of the United States.
Having said that, Biden has been treated for atrial fibrillation (a-fib) for roughly two decades. In the latest medical report, doctors describe his a-fib as persistent, with normal ventricular response.
Since 2003, Biden has dealt with the condition, which includes an irregular heartbeat. He has reportedly been prescribed blood thinners to prevent blood clots or a stroke, which patients are at a higher risk of suffering.
Biden Facing Impeachment Inquiry
The other looming threat for Biden’s first term is an impeachment inquiry launched by the Republican Party. Is a possible impeachment a bigger threat to Biden’s presidency than his health?
In December, the House approved a Biden impeachment inquiry. With a vote of 221-212, every Republican in the House voted in favor of an inquiry into misconduct committed by Biden.
According to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House investigations have discovered corruption that must be looked at further. The corruption claims stem from bribery accusations against Biden and his son, Hunter Biden.
Spearheaded by Rep. James Comer, chairman of the House Oversight Committee, they have acquired over 36,000 financial documents from Biden’s family and associates through subpoenas to the Treasury Department and financial institutions.
Republicans allege that Hunter’s business dealings overseas, notably with Ukraine and China, are worth investigating closely. Additionally, Biden’s mishandling of classified documents, and interfering with a Justice Department investigation is currently under a microscope.
That would be one way to take Biden down before the end of his first term. However, thus far, no evidence has proven that Biden is guilty of any wrongdoing.
Currently, at Bovada, Biden has +250 odds of being impeached during his first term in office. Per Biden’s impeachment odds, he has an implied probability of 28.6 percent of being impeached.
