- The Ohio State Buckeyes have the shortest odds to qualify for the 12-team 2025 College Football Playoff.
- Ohio State failed to reach the College Football Playoff in two of the previous three seasons.
- Alabama and Michigan’s College Football Playoff odds took a huge dive in the wake of their head coaches resigning.
The bookies strongly believe that the Ohio State Buckeyes have the best chance of qualifying for the first 12-team CFP. Ohio State (-1000) is the favorite in the latest odds, while the Georgia Bulldogs (-800) have the second-best odds of making the 2024-25 CFP.
The odds translate into Ohio State having an implied probability of 90.9% to reach the CFP in 2024-25. Although the CFP committee didn’t vote Ohio State into the CFP for the 2021 and 2023 seasons, the expanded format will almost guarantee a spot for the Buckeyes in 2024-25.
That said, Ohio State should have the talent and resume to be a top-four team regardless. If things go according to plan for Ohio State, they hope to be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed at the end of the season. Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day will be in an incredibly tough position if they aren’t a high seed in the 2024-25 CFP.
Following three consecutive losses in “The Game”, Day must beat the Michigan Wolverines and have success in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State fans have been calling for Day to be dismissed for two years now. Disappointing results in 2024-25 would undoubtedly be his final stand.
Ohio State’s CFP Odds Bolstered By Alabama And Michigan Woes
The Buckeyes’ top CFP odds are aided by the current state of Alabama and Michigan football. If Michigan was bringing back the same team as last season, there is a strong argument to be made that the defending champs would have the shortest odds to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Of course, Jim Harbaugh’s resignation to return to the NFL had made a significant impact on Michigan’s chances in 2024-25. In Harbaugh’s place, former Michigan assistant, Sherrone Moore, will enter his first season as the head coach of a college football program. Even if he does well, the Wolverines are losing an abundance of talent.
The program is sending an incredible 18 players to Indianapolis for the NFL Combine. It’s the highest percentage of attendees in one season in the modern era. With this said, Ohio State is benefitting greatly from their rivals taking a step back.
Additionally, the Alabama Crimson Tide will be without Nick Saban for the first year since 2006. Former Washington Huskies’ head coach, Kalen DeBoer, was hired to replace Saban after the 72-year-old Hall of Fame coach retired. That is not a bad hire, but Alabama is not expected to be firing on all cylinders in what is considered a transition year.
Based on Alabama’s CFP odds, the Crimson Tide have less than a 50% chance of reaching the playoffs. At +150 odds, Alabama has an implied probability of 40% to play in the 2024-25 CFP. Michigan has a slightly better than 50% chance at -110 odds.
Crowded QB Battle For Starting Job
With Ohio State returning nine starters on defense, the Buckeyes are well-positioned to have a top-ranked defensive unit. Ohio State has a strong chance of being a special defense in 2024-25.
However, there is some uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. Despite four starters coming back on the offensive line for the 2023-24 season, Ohio State couldn’t run the ball and the pass protection was questionable at times.
For the 2024-25 season, Ohio State will lose star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to the NFL. The No. 1 ranked wide receiver prospect in the nation is set to be a top-10 pick in this spring’s upcoming NFL Draft. Also, the Buckeyes will be looking for a new starting QB.
It may not be Day’s worst problem to have. Kyle McCord was wildly inconsistent in big games for the Buckeyes in 2023-24. In December, McCord transferred to Syracuse due to a ‘business decision’.
That leaves a crowded QB battle for the Buckeyes. In addition to Will Howard transferring to Ohio State, there is a bevy of young, highly touted QBs in camp in Columbus this year. Incoming five-star freshman Air Noland will pressure Howard, Lincoln Kienholz, and Cotton Bowl starter Devin Brown.
We don’t know who will be QB1 for Ohio State in Week 1 against Akron. What we do know, however, is that Day needs this team to live up to expectations, or he will be looking for a new job.
Currently, at BetOnline, Ohio State is +525 to win the 2024-25 CFP.
