MLB Betting Tips & Strategies To Help You Win
Adding proven MLB betting tips to your baseball betting strategy can dramatically improve your chances of winning. Our baseball experts have created the following MLB betting guide to help you with everything from how to bet on MLB games to more advanced strategies. Whether you’re a newbie or a seasoned pro looking to refine your game, we’ll help you take your betting to the next level.
Keep reading for betting tips, types of baseball bets, how to read MLB betting odds, strategies for live betting on the MLB, and lots more.
In This MLB Betting Guide:
Expert MLB Picks
See All MLB PicksBenefit from a winning edge in baseball betting. If you want to know who to bet on in the MLB, our mix of expert and AI-generated picks and predictions is your go-to guide. Picks include home/away records, points per game, defensive aspects, and many more stats.
MLB Betting Tips
Increase your MLB betting winning potential with 6 easy-to-follow tips:
1. Check The Weather
Rain isn’t the only weather factor to consider when betting on baseball. While early-game showers can force pitching changes, the wind’s strength and direction can significantly impact scoring (think home runs in a strong wind blowing out). Even temperature can play a role, affecting the ball’s flight and pitcher stamina. Hot and humid air is less dense than cold and dry air, which studies have shown can lead to more home runs.
2. Review The Schedule
Analyze the schedule for potential advantages or disadvantages. Teams might be driven by revenge against playoff rivals, or drained after a doubleheader. Identifying these scheduling quirks can help you make informed bets that capitalize on a certain team’s edge.
3. Know The Umpires
Savvy MLB bettors know the power of umpire analysis. This data reveals valuable insights, like strike zone size and its impact on scoring. Generally, larger strike zones favor pitchers, leading to fewer walks and lower runs.
Example: In 2023, Carlos Torres had a low strike zone (61.57%). This resulted in hitters getting more balls and high-scoring games (11.62 runs/game) with a trend towards OVER (9-3). While, Doug Eddings (2023) had a larger strike zone (65.72%) which made life tougher for batters. This lead to lower-scoring games (8.48 runs/game) with a trend towards UNDER (12-18).
Knowing an umpire’s tendencies can help you find hidden value on totals and prop bets.
4. Research The Ballparks
Stadiums play a critical role when it comes to handicapping totals. Ballpark dimensions, regional weather, and even the home team’s roster can all contribute to consistent over/under trends. Recognizing these tendencies can inform smarter bets that exploit these park-specific advantages. Understanding the impact of ballparks will give you an edge in your baseball betting strategy.
5. Betting Against The Public
The Los Angeles Dodgers are boasting star acquisitions of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow. They’re primed for a winning season, and public support is sure to be sky-high.
Sportsbooks know this too, which means that you can expect inflated odds for the Dodgers to win. These elevated odds could potentially mask the true value of their opponents. We don’t recommend that you bet against popular teams like the Dodgers in each game, but strategically targeting underdog situations with favorable odds can be a profitable long-term strategy.
6. Avoid Parlays
The best MLB betting strategy regarding parlays is to play them sparingly and for entertainment purposes only. It’s tempting to chase big potential winnings on a massive parlay after seeing a bettor has won thousands on a successful 12-team wager. However, for every once-in-a-blue-moon parlay that hits, thousands don’t. In a 10-team parlay, even 9 wins and 1 loss means a losing bet. Instead, we recommend betting on games individually to reduce variance and maximize profits on days when you pick more winners than losers.
Types Of Baseball Bets
It’s important to understand all your options while forming your own baseball betting strategies. Here are the main types of baseball bets:
Moneyline
Moneyline betting is wagering on the outright winner of a game. Odds are assigned to each team’s winning chances.
Example: A moneyline bet on a matchup between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays means betting on the baseball game winner (Yankees -130) or the underdog (Blue Jays +110). Risk $130 to win $100 with the favorite, or $100 to win $110 with the underdog.
Expert Tip:
We recommend being selective when placing bets on the moneyline and only betting on games with lines that give your side good value. With so many MLB games to choose from, you can be selective with your moneyline prices.
Run Line (Point Spread)
Run line betting is a form of point spread betting specific to baseball. Here, the favored team is always handicapped by exactly 1.5 runs. Imagine the Brewers favored by 1.5 against the Cubs. Back the Brewers if they win by 2+ runs, the Cubs if they win or lose by 1.
Expert Tip:
Try to avoid betting favorites on the run line in low-scoring games. High-scoring teams rarely win by a single run, making them risky run line bets. Look to strong pitching teams for tighter games and better run line coverage.
Totals
Totals betting, AKA over/under, is predicting the combined number of runs in a game, with the sportsbook setting a total runs line.
Example: In a game between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, the total is set at 8.5. A final score of Houston 6 – Texas 4 means the OVER bets win with 10 total runs.
Expert Tip:
Always consider bullpens when handicapping totals. Lines tend to be set very low in games with two strong starting pitchers. Whether a game finishes over or under the posted total often comes down to how well the bullpens perform.
Parlays
Parlay betting is combining multiple individual bets into a single wager for a chance at a bigger payout.
Example: Creating a parlay that combines the Orioles -140, Rockies +130, and White Sox vs. Twins UNDER 9.5. While parlays offer a chance at higher payouts, remember that each selection must win, so it’s a high-risk, high-reward bet.
Expert Tip:
Consider parlaying the moneyline and the total if your prediction connects the two. For instance, if you think a team with a poor pitcher will still outscore their opponent, you can parlay their moneyline win with the OVER.
Props
Proposition bets, or props in baseball are bets on outcomes or events not necessarily tied to the game’s final result.
Example: Predict which player hits the first home run between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets. Or bet on how many strikeouts Aaron Nola will record.
Expert Tip:
Savvy MLB bettors can often find good value on individual player props like over/under hits. Look out for hot and cold streaks and historical performances against the game’s starting pitcher.
Futures
Futures betting is wagering on future baseball events, such as the World Series or a team’s regular season win total.
Example: Before the MLB season begins, a wager can be placed on the Atlanta Braves to win the World Series. Futures bets are available all season long, with price updates based on team injuries and performances.
Expert Tip:
Monitor futures prices on strong teams facing early slumps. If the betting market overreacts, and the team’s odds of winning the World Series drop, you can buy low and potentially win big when they heat back up.
How To Read MLB Betting Odds
It’s time to master American odds for successful MLB betting. Odds indicate the potential return on any given bet. The three most popular odds formats are: American, decimal, and fractional. MLB betting sites in the United States display American odds most frequently.
American Odds:
American odds are displayed with either a plus (+) or minus (-) sign.
- Positive odds show the potential profit on a $100 bet.
- Negative odds represent the wager amount required to win $100.
Example:
The Tigers at (+200) means $200 profit, plus your $100 back if they win. If the odds were -150, you would need to bet $150 to potentially win $100.
Keep in mind that these ratios apply no matter the amount wagered. A $300 bet to win $100 is the same as a $600 bet to win $200.
Guide To Live Betting On The MLB
Live betting on baseball can really heighten the enjoyment of your experience. For baseball fans who want to explore in-game betting, here are some tips to help you gain an edge:
1. Know The Rules
Live betting rules vary by sportsbook. For example, prop bets may be graded as “No Action” if a game is called early due to weather or stadium malfunction. We recommend reviewing your chosen sportsbook’s terms and conditions to check how specific situations will be handled.
2. Understand The Odds
Familiarize yourself with the American odds format in the section above. MLB live betting odds are constantly changing based on the game’s events. Having a firm grasp on what the odds mean will help you make smart and quick decisions in real-time.
3. Check The Injury Report
Don’t get caught off guard by injuries or rest days. Check the starting lineup for both teams and read team reports to see if either starting pitcher is on a pitch count. You can also use a site like X (formerly known as Twitter) to check for up-to-the-minute injury updates while live betting.
4. Combine Betting Strategies
We advise that newbies to live baseball betting stick to basics, such as live moneylines and totals. As you get more comfortable, branching out into different player and game prop bets is a lot of fun. As you get the hang of it, you can explore player and game props to combine strategies and increase wins based on your baseball knowledge.
5. Watch The Game
Nothing compares to the first-hand observations made while watching a live game. While you can follow balls and strikes on an app, you can’t see a batter wincing in pain, or a pitcher angry over a bad call. These live details could be game changers in your two-out rally bets.
6. Consider Home Field Advantage
Before placing your bet, check how teams perform at home and on the road. This can be your secret weapon for live betting run lines and totals. Remember, the road team always bats in the top of the ninth, so think twice before betting on a comeback if they’re trailing.
Best MLB Betting Site For Beginners
Our team of baseball betting experts has reviewed a wide range of MLB betting sites, all available on our dedicated MLB sportsbook page. Our top choice for beginning baseball bettors is BetUS.
1
The Best MLB Betting Site For Beginners: BetUS
BetUS’ library of expert MLB resources and generous welcome promos makes it our top site for baseball betting newbies. The site’s daily MLB show on BetUS TV offers seasoned picks and predictions throughout the season, and their LockerRoom section is updated with MLB news, important league updates, and betting analysis to give you an edge.
If you’re experimenting with moneylines, run lines, totals, props, futures, live betting, or odds boosts, you’ll find a large selection of betting options at BetUS. Additionally, new sign-ups can collect a 125% match bonus of up to $3,125 on their first deposit to help boost their MLB betting bankroll. That welcome bonus offer gets bumped up to a 200% match up to $5,000 for an initial deposit in cryptocurrency.
A Brief History Of The MLB
Major League Baseball boasts a rich 121-year legacy. Here’s a look back at some of the most memorable moments of the last 40 years from a sports betting perspective:
The Latest MLB News
Click below to check out the latest baseball news and updates from The Sports Geek.
Responsible Gambling
We encourage you to gamble responsibly and consider online betting as a form of entertainment, not a source of income. Set loss limits and time limits, and don’t bet more than you’re comfortable losing.
Here are some resources to help you, or someone you care about, gamble responsibly and get help:
MLB Betting Tips Takeaways
The sports experts at The Sports Geek has crafted these MLB betting tips, strategies, and valuable examples to help you navigate the world of MLB sports betting. From understanding moneyline bets and multi-layered parlays to considering ballpark advantages and the importance of the umps, we’ve got you covered.
If you want to start betting on the MLB, we recommend BetUS as our top site for beginners.
Stay on top of all the latest MLB news and get our free expert AI picks to help you get the most out of your wagers. Good luck! We’re rooting for you!
