NBA Betting Strategy Guide
The experts at The Sports Geek have developed a basketball betting guide, so you can take advantage of the best NBA betting tips. This guide will help you get started, outline ways to build your betting strategy, and explain more advanced concepts, like fading the public. Keep reading for everything you need to help you sharpen your edge.
In This NBA Betting Strategy Guide:
NBA Betting Strategies For Beginners
If you’re a beginner, you will discover that handicapping and betting on basketball can be tricky. There are many factors to keep in mind, especially when dealing with large spreads and wide ranges on moneylines. Here are a few key basketball betting tips and answers to frequently asked questions that will make your NBA betting simpler and more fun:
Create Your Bankroll Management Plan
Setting up a bankroll management plan is essential to enjoying NBA betting sites responsibly and succeeding in the long term. A smart bankroll management plan includes sticking to your budget when making bets and taking advantage of bonuses to help make your bankroll last longer.
EXPERT TIP:
Consider setting a single betting limit of 2-5% of your total betting bankroll.
Example: If you have $500 to bet on the NBA, then all of your bets should range between $10-$25. You can reassess your betting limit at milestones, like $300 or $700. This betting strategy will allow you to gradually increase your bet amounts when you are winning and limit losses with smaller bets when you are losing. This bankroll management plan will help you stay in the game longer and allow you to withstand some cold streaks.
An NBA bankroll management plan, based on our example above, will help you have fun and prevent you from risking large wagers.
What Is A Sports Betting Bankroll?
A bankroll is the amount of money you deposit on a betting site that you will use place your wagers. It is an amount that you would be comfortable spending over a period of time.
TIP: You can always increase your bankroll as you play, so we recommend not overextending yourself when you first start betting.
Read Injury Reports & Rest Management
The NBA is one of the most superstar-driven leagues and, if a key player is injured and not playing, it can significantly impact the game. It can also affect your NBA betting picks.
Example: Consider the 2022-23 Los Angeles Clippers. They went 11-22 straight up in the 33 games that Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in that season, and 34-20 SU in the 54 games that he did. Your moneyline win rate on the Clippers without Leonard was only .333, compared to a .630 win rate when he was in the lineup.
This can be a frustrating surprise if you bet on a team expecting their star player to play, only to find out that he’s a late scratch due to an injury or rest day.
EXPERT TIP:
Confirm the playing status of key players before making your bet. This is especially important for lines that look “off” and may already be factoring in an absence.
Watch The Schedule
NBA teams that have busy travel schedules or a series of away games can fatigue and underperform.
Example: The Milwaukee Bucks had the best record in the NBA in 2022-23. They had their highest offensive output of the season in a 149-136 road win as 13-point favorites against the Indiana Pacers. The very next night, they lost to the Boston Celtics 140-99 as two-point home favorites in their worst game of the season. Expending that much energy on the road, then traveling home and playing the next night against one of the NBA’s top teams, resulted in Milwaukee falling flat.
EXPERT TIP:
Look closely at back-to-back games where one team has to travel across the country on a short turnaround. We recommend also looking for games with other schedule-based quirks that may favor one team over the other, before placing your bet.
Choose A Trusted NBA Betting Site
You want to select an online sportsbook that has:
- Competitive NBA lines and odds
- Beneficial promotions to boost your betting potential
- A great variety of betting options
- Fair minimum/maximum banking and wagering amounts
These are all key considerations that will help to put you in the best position to win. Choosing a betting site that offers these elements will make your online betting experience more fun, and hopefully more profitable.
BetUS Best Site For Betting On The NBA
BetUS checks off all four key elements above and that’s why our NBA betting experts put at the top of our recommended NBA betting sites:
BetUS TV and The Locker Room deliver free NBA picks and predictions every weekday — you’ll always have valuable NBA betting insight at your fingertips. This sets BetUS apart from the competition. You’ll also find great value in their betting odds, along with a ton of sports to wager on. There is also a wide variety of banking options for bettors, including crypto.
In addition, BetUS starts you off with a 100% sports welcome bonus up to $2,500 on your first deposit. They also offer same game parlays and odds boosts to give you an edge over the competition.
Sports Welcome Bonus 100% up to $2,500
Crypto Welcome Bonus 150% up to $3,750
NBA Betting Contests Up to $25,00 Prize Pot
BetUS TV and Locker Room for NBA analysis and picks
Same game parlays and odds boosts on NBA games
Large number of banking options including crypto
NBA Betting Strategy: How To Understand Betting Systems & Gain An Edge
An NBA betting system is a strategy used by NBA bettors to take advantage of a pattern they have identified to be profitable.
Example: If you notice, that one season has games with two teams playing on short rest trending towards the OVER (since both teams are too tired to play defense), you may want to keep an eye out for these spots in the future and play the OVER on them.
Here are a few important NBA betting systems to understand and look out for:
How Betting Odds Work
Everything the bookmaker at online sports betting sites does is for a reason. When you see a betting line that seems odd to you, we recommend that you take a moment to think about why the line is set this way.
Example: It’s important to consider these three questions before placing your bet:
- Is a key player trying to play through an injury that might affect his performance?
- Is the bookmaker trying to ensure that equal money is betting on both sides?
- Is there an overreaction to recent off-the-court news?
Try to figure out what the bookie’s intentions are, and start keeping track of how these games play out. If you can see how these odds work, and you can spot trends where the bookie is tilting a line, then you can start betting the other side.
How To Find Shaded Lines
Shaded lines are lines where an NBA sportsbook prepares for a heavy wave of action on one side by intentionally over-pricing that line, which are the betting odds for a game.
Depending on the matchups, you will usually see spreads as high as 6.5-8.5 points. If you see a matchup with a larger spread number, that means the sportsbooks are trying to entice players to bet on the underdog. By spotting lines that are clearly shaded, due to recent news or performance, you can often get value betting on the other side.
Example: The Denver Nuggets are on a 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak, and have won all five of those games by 15 points or more. NBA bettors and the public take notice of this. Bettors will get excited by this run and will want to get in on the action, especially if the Nuggets are playing a weak team in their next game. If Denver is hosting the Memphis Grizzlies, online sports betting sites might have the true line behind closed doors at Denver -11.5. But, if the bookies know that people are going to bet on the Nuggets at any price, then they might release this line at Denver -13.5. Sportsbooks will do this to try and encourage bettors to wager on the Grizzlies, as 13.5 points is a large spread number.
What Does Fade Mean In Betting?
A fade means that you will bet the opposite of what the majority bets. This is essentially betting against the popular choice.
Following the same logic as finding the shaded lines, it is usually a good idea to fade the betting public. Sportsbooks try their best to mitigate risk on NBA games, so they won’t take too big a loss if the side with more betting action wins. This is what drives line movement.
Example: The Golden State Warriors are a 3.5-point favorite on the road against the Houston Rockets, and the public loves the Warriors in this spot. As more action comes in on Golden State at -3.5, the line might move up to Golden State at -4, and then go to -4.5 as sportsbooks try to invite action on the other side.
EXPERT TIP:
If the line isn’t moving, despite lots of public action on one side, that could mean that the sportsbook is comfortable taking the risk on what it sees as a strong underdog. Either way, you usually can’t go wrong betting against the public.
How To Take Advantage Of Live Betting
Die-hard NBA fans often develop an eye for what’s going on in the game as they watch it. Live betting can turn into winning bets if you can:
- Identify the start of a hot shooting night
- See a shift in momentum
- Realize how effective a well-used time out will be
When you can bet on player performances, game outcomes, totals, and spreads as the game is unfolding, your knowledge of basketball can be put to good use.
EXPERT TIP:
Take advantage of the live sports betting options offered by your NBA sportsbook when you notice something happen in real time.
Expert Betting Picks For The NBA
See All NBA PicksUse the NBA betting strategies and tips featured on this page to handicap the games on your own, and then cross-reference your picks with The Sports Geek’s Free NBA Picks. We feature picks from NBA experts and have daily NBA picks from our AI-driven model on every game all season long.
Top NBA Betting Tips
The expert team at The Sports Geek has put together our top NBA betting tips to help you enjoy online betting and feel safe and confident:
1) Stick To Straight Bets & Avoid Parlays
Occasionally betting on NBA parlays for entertainment purposes is fine but, over the long run, it’s safer to stick to straight bets like moneylines, spreads, and totals. Parlays can offer exotic payouts on the rare occasions that they hit. However, more often than not, you’ll turn what would have been a profitable 4-1 card bet on several individual games into a single losing five-team parlay.
2) Bet On Early Lines
NBA betting odds are at their most vulnerable when they are first released. Over the next few hours, sportsbooks will make line movements and adjustments based on early betting action. Those lines will get even sharper in the hours leading up to tip-off, as sportsbooks will have had plenty of time to tweak their lines. By handicapping games before the betting line drops, and placing your bet as soon as possible, you can take advantage of the weakest lines before corrections are made.
3) Use Social Media To Stay Up-To-Date On Player News
It’s never been easier to keep up with NBA player news on social media. NBA insiders and local team beat reporters provide up-to-the-minute news and information on sites like X.
Follow a handful of these accounts so you can stay up-to-date at all times. This will also help you search for specific teams and players when handicapping a particular game.
4) Consider Pace When Betting On Totals
Some teams prefer to play at a fast pace, while others like to slow the game down and run down the shot clock before taking their shot. Numbers like ‘points for’ and ‘points against’ averages are useful when handicapping NBA totals.
TIP: Look into each team’s time per possession trends.
Getting an idea of how many possessions each team is projected to have during the game can help you determine how high or low scoring the game might be.
5) Don’t Force It Against Strong Lines
Every team plays 82 regular season games, so there will never be a shortage of NBA betting options available online. We recommend that you are selective when deciding which games to bet on. Even if you have a good feeling about which way a game will go, if the spread or moneyline isn’t set at an advantageous price, we advise waiting for a better opportunity.
6) Avoid Chasing Your Losses & Tilt Betting
Tilt betting is when you bet impulsively or in a less rational way. This can happen when you’re emotional, tired, or upset after losing. This kind of reactive betting can lead to bad decisions, like abandoning your bankroll management strategy or betting on a game without an edge. If you’re having a bad run of luck, we recommend that you take a break to regroup, instead of chasing your loss.
NBA Betting Resources
The Best NBA Betting Sites Read reviews & check out our top-rated NBA sportsbooks.
NBA Betting Guide Everything you need to know about sportsbooks, welcome bonuses, additional NBA betting tips, & more.
WNBA Betting Guide Get all the tips for betting on women’s basketball.
Latest NBA News
Basketball
Lakers Fire Darvin Ham, Looking For Next Head CoachBy Kyle Eve May 3, 2024 2 minutes min
Basketball
Jontay Porter Receives Lifetime NBA Ban For GamblingBy Kyle Eve Apr 18, 2024 3 minutes min
NBA Betting Strategy Summary
The most important part of any NBA betting strategy is information gathering. The Sports Geek experts have outlined valuable tips and tricks, that have all been tested, so you can feel confident you’re crafting the best strategies. We recommend using a bankroll management strategy, researching players and stats, and staying up-to-date with the latest picks. You can stay informed by checking out our blog, news, and picks pages. We’re rooting for you!