2024-25 First NFL Coach to be Fired: Who Will Go Down First?

• Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders)
• Frank Reich (Carolina Panthers)
• Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers)
• Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons)
• Ron Rivera (Washington Commanders)
• Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans)
• Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks)
• Bill Belichick (New England Patriots)

The Jaguars’ front office wants to see results this season or a change will be made. Another failed season with Trevor Lawrence under center would result in a change in Jacksonville. This is a critical year for Doug Pederson, who can’t afford another 9-8 campaign.

Well, through Week 3, the Jaguars are well behind the pace of a 9-8 season. They are winless in three games, and coming off an embarrassing 47-10 loss to the Bills. It isn’t going to get any easier for the Jaguars, either. They have Texans, Colts, and Bears next, which should all be competitive matchups.

Pederson was let go by the Eagles because he failed to make adjustments and adapt to a changing league. He is making the same mistakes in Jacksonville, which has led to him being the favorite to be the first NFL coach fired in 2024-25.

The Jaguars had AFC South title aspirations, but it only seems like a pipedream now. The downhill momentum started early this season in Week 1. The Jaguars opened the season with a 20-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

Doug Pederson on his recent conversations with Shad Khan

🎥: @jaguars | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/JQWD5x4pSk

— 1010 XL / 92.5 FM (@1010XL) September 24, 2024

Despite going into halftime with a 17-7 lead, Pederson’s group didn’t manage to score a single point in the second half. Those are the types of instances that put a head coach directly under the microscope. Pederson and his coaching staff failed to make adjustments to counter Mike McDaniel.

Pederson claims his relationship with team owner Shad Khan is strong, but I have my doubts. In any event, the relationship between the coach and Lawrence is on full display for everyone to see. The way I see it, Pederson is on borrowed time.

Go figure, barely defeating the New York Giants didn’t do much to instill much confidence in bettors. If the Giants had a top-10 quarterback, it’s likely the Cowboys would not have gotten out of that game with a 15-10 win.

The Cowboys advanced to 2-2 with the win, so they were dangerously close to falling to 1-3. That would result in McCarthy being the favorite to be the first coach this season. At least, he would have been a close co-favorite with Pederson.

There were growing calls for McCarthy’s place on the hot seat after getting pummeled by the New Orleans Saints in Week 2, 44-19. The Cowboys followed up with a 28-25 loss to a quality Ravens squad. Losing to the Giants would have put McCarthy’s position in serious peril.

Mike McCarthy on Cowboys' close victory over Giants: "For the fourth week in a row, we realized that we have a lot of work to do"https://t.co/z1ka9kA4No pic.twitter.com/4qDbQUEvlm

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) September 27, 2024

The Cowboys’ schedule doesn’t get much easier in the near future. They challenge the Steelers, Lions, 49ers, Falcons, and Texans over the next six weeks! This puts McCarthy in a critical position to win some key games in October. Would Jerry Jones have it in him to can the coach, however?

The Giants didn’t waste any time derailing and crashing this season. In a downright ugly display, they were embarrassed against a mediocre Vikings team. Sam Darnold and Minnesota went into East Rutherford and made it look easy in a 28-6 final.

Keeping consistent with the preseason, the offense was in shambles with Daniel Jones under center. He passed for 186 yards and two interceptions on 50% completions. Rookie WR Malik Nabers was promising in his NFL debut, but there wasn’t anything else to look forward to on this team.

Daniel Jones is 100% backpic.twitter.com/3obWaJQtPt

— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) September 8, 2024

The offensive line woes continued in the season opener, but above all else, Jones appears disinterested. He’s making too much money on a four-year, $160M to be delivering such lackluster performances.

Jones’ attitude and body language are likely a reflection of how bad the locker room atmosphere is right now. It can be used as an indicator of what is to come for the head coach.

The way I see it, Daboll is a lame-duck head coach. He probably knows the organization will want to clean house soon. If the season turns really ugly, which is possible with this uninspired team, it’s unlikely for him to make it to the end of the season.

The win over the Browns and the close loss to the Cowboys will buy Daboll some more time. However, he is firmly entrenched on the hot seat, and his job will likely be reevaluated later in the year or offseason.

The Bengals’ Zac Taylor is a new name at the top of the NFL head coach firing odds. In our last update before Week 2, Taylor was not in the top 10. He had a +2500 price of being the first coach fired, so this shift has been one of the most notable of the season.

Taylor’s squad is off to yet another slow start in September. Is this the year that they can’t dig out of the hole and crater? If Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ body language is any indication, it’s going to be difficult for the Bengals to flip a switch and become a Super Bowl contender.

Two of the Bengals’ three losses were winnable contests against the Patriots and Commanders at home! That is a huge blemish on Taylor’s resume, but it’s tough to see him being fired in-season. Yeah, at the end of the year, his job may be evaluated.

However, Taylor has done enough in the past during his tenure to save himself from a quick dismissal during the season. I understand why his odds have dropped so fast, but McCarthy and Pederson are more likely to see the door.

Following the top favorites, Kevin Stefanski has to be one of the most likely head coaches to be fired. In fact, I have Stefanski ahead of Taylor’s odds to be the first coach fired, but I still don’t see it being probable during the season.

The Browns were humiliated at home against the visiting Dallas Cowboys. While the Cowboys are a tough foe, the Browns were expected to be in much better shape as the favorite at home. Instead, they faltered by a score of 33-17 on home field.

With a score of 20-3 at halftime, the game was seemingly over before the second half. That isn’t an impossible lead to overcome, but it appeared so based on how Deshaun Watson and the Browns were playing.

They managed to bounce back for an 18-13 win over the Jaguars. Stefanski was emotional after the victory in the locker room in his address to the team.

one heck of a team win 😤@Ticketmaster | #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/e4Beiwo5ot

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 15, 2024

However, the positive emotions didn’t last long after a 21-15 loss to the Giants at home. The disappointing effort turned up the heat on Stefanski’s seat, which may prompt him to make a change at quarterback.

Watson looked completely out of sync and ill-prepared to play against the Cowboys and Giants. The Giants are having their own issues with Jones after signing him to a huge contract, and the same is going on with Watson after he inked an overinflated five-year, $230M contract in 2022.

Now, Watson is in the midst of another legal battle after a new lawsuit was launched due to an alleged sexual assault in 2020. I don’t expect him to get his head in the game and playing confidently anytime soon.

That being said, Stefanski’s NFL Coach of the Year honors in 2020 and this past year for the 2023 season should keep him on the sideline for at least another year.