Best Football Betting Strategies For The NFL In 2024

Not all trends carry the same weight. For instance, how the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys have performed against each other over their last five meetings doesn’t matter much. These teams see each other every four years, and there is a lot of roster turnover in between those meetings. Older trends tend to carry less importance than more recent ones.

For instance, how the Dolphins perform against a division rival like the New England Patriots that they clash with twice a year, could definitely be a useful indicator of what to expect from their next meeting. Similarly, how a team has been trending in recent weeks with spreads and totals is something you’ll want to pay attention to. One more important example is how a team has played at home or on the road in this particular season.

Make analysing more recent trends a part of your weekly handicapping process, and take note of trends you find success with.

When a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is hurt, that’s going to be top sports news. But what about an injury to the team’s backup running back who plays a vital role for the team in short-distance situations? How about a defensive lineman that consistently puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks? Or, a blocking tight end that buys his quarterback time to throw?

These injuries may not be top news stories, but they can have a major impact on the outcome of the game or the season. Closely monitor the injury report of teams you are betting for and against. Be sure to consider the impact that these absences may have on the game.

We mentioned this NFL betting tip briefly in the “Understand Betting Types” section above, but it is worth repeating. Parlays are very popular due to their high potential payouts. While teasers are popular because they seem “easy” to hit given the extra points that bettors are receiving. But in reality, both of these plays have huge edges in the house’s favour. This forces you to be perfect across multiple wagers, while not actually paying out the true odds of your unlikely success.

If you are a recreational bettor and enjoy betting on parlays or teasers, obviously you can do so for entertainment purposes. Just consider setting aside a limited budget if you do play them, and understand that they aren’t the best strategy for betting on football.

Due to the nature of scoring in the NFL, the numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 are all relevant. Three and seven in particular are often referred to as “key numbers,” given how frequently games are decided by a field goal or a touchdown. From 2000 through 2023, these six numbers represented the most common final score margins, with three being the highest at over 15% of all games and seven coming in with over 9% of all games per cleanup hitter.

These numbers are important to keep in mind when analyzing spreads. Certain numbers and line movements carry a lot more weight than others. For example, if the New Orleans Saints move from -4.5 to -5.5, not much really changed, since the likelihood of them winning by exactly five points is pretty low. A move from -2.5 to -3.5 or from -6.5 to -7.5 on the other hand is pretty significant, given how many games are decided by three and seven points.

In the 17 NFL seasons from 2002 through 2018, home teams won 56% or more of the games played in all but two seasons, per the Washington Post. Consistent success from home teams across the board has declined in recent years, part due to bad team performances and dwindling support at home. Having said that, top teams still tend to play better at home than they do on the road.

While home field advantage does tend to play a role in the outcome of NFL games, the advantage is often baked into the spread. A game that might be a pick’em on a neutral field will usually list the home team as a 3-point favorite. This means there may be value in strong road teams in some instances, while in others an elite home team is being undervalued. Instead of trying to find a one-size-fits-all rule, be sure to study how teams you are interested in tend to play at home and on the road.

The best NFL betting strategy usually includes a fair share of underdogs. Bettors shouldn’t blindly bet on underdogs in the same way they shouldn’t blindly bet on home teams or any other all-encompassing rule. It is worth noting however, that underdogs in general tend to have more betting value than favorites do.

The reason, is that the betting public loves to bet on favorites. Consistently winning teams like the Kansas City Chiefs (with star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce) are going to generate a ton of betting interest. Similarly, casual fans will flock to betting against teams with bad records.

Sportsbooks will adjust their lines to mitigate risk, giving sharp bettors added incentive and extra value to bet on the underdog. Simply put, you earn more money off a winning underdog than you do by picking a winning favorite. With the proper research, you can make a larger profit by picking underdogs, but just remember, it comes with a bigger risk. Even if your underdog picks don’t always win, you’ll often be getting them at the right price.

Historically, brick-and-mortar sportsbooks have had very limited options when it comes to live betting on NFL games such as second-half lines released at halftime. All of the top online NFL sportsbooks, on the other hand, allow you to place a wide range of live bets all game long directly from your computer or mobile device.

This gives knowledgeable football fans a lot of extra power to make profitable NFL bets. Do you often find yourself calling out what the next play is going to be while you are watching a game? Or sense the momentum shifting before it is reflected in the score? Thanks to live betting, you can actually bet on hunches like these.

Sharp NFL bettors can also often find value going against the grain. The live betting market tends to overreact on things like betting the OVER after both teams score early, or betting on the favorite if they get out to a big lead. But if you anticipate that defensive adjustments will be made, you may find profitable plays on the UNDER or the underdog. Opportunities for profitable plays can be found every NFL Sunday when you don’t forget about live betting.