There is no UFC this week, but Fight Pass is putting up LFA 149, with odds on the six fight main card. LFA 149 odds are money line only, so we’re going on a deep dive for a three fight MMA parlay that you can add to the Gervonta Davis knockout win this weekend. Bunes vs Horiuchi can be found on UFC betting sites legal in your area, listed at the bottom of the page.
How to Bet on LFA 149 and Top Predictions
Our Legacy Fighting Alliance picks cover all six money lines. The two amateur fights on the card don’t have any odds available, but you can bet on Grace DiFrancesco and Chance Ikei if the odds are revealed by fight night.
- Felipe Bunes +110
- Marcus McGhee -300
- Eric Fimbres -285
- Adam Garcia +250
- Princeton Jackson +160
- Bradley Emmett +180
We see a night of upsets, betting on the underdogs four fights to two. We’re looking at a parlay of McGhee, Fimbres and Bunes for +278 odds and a nearly four times your money payout.
LFA 149 Odds
These fighters are listed from main event to prelims. Expect odds to change as we move toward fight time, or bet now to get these money lines at Bovada. Bunes LFA 149 odds could easily drop to -120, and has already done so at some betting sites.
Felipe Bunes +110 vs Yuma Horiuchi -145
The LFA 149 main event features a fighter we had money on at LFA 124. Bunes is 2-1 since 2021, losing only to Jussier Formiga (RNC) inside his last three. Team Oyama’s Yuma Horiuchi is also 2-1 over three fights, losing at Road to UFC 3. Their record shows that Bunes has faced the tougher fighters, including undefeated Murad Magomedov.
Bunes vs Horiuchi Fight Tape
Both men are grapplers at their core. Bunes is a black belt out of Sao Paulo and Horiuchi trains with many of Japan’s best Judo/Catch wrestling combination fighters. This comes down to power and conditioning. Yuma has the knockout striking ability that Bunes does not, and can often run over fighters who make minor mistakes.
RT @Grabaka_Hitman: If you were wondering how the LFA VR looks, this was Yuma Horiuchi's finish just now #LFA144 pic.twitter.com/LcnWdMll8y
— MMA HOPHEAD (@mmaforyou) October 15, 2022
Looking at Bunes showing against Wascar Cruz shows us that he has something Yuma hasn’t developed yet, the ability to use a game plan to change his style.
Bunes to Win via Narrow Decision
Bunes is a dangerous grappler and ground striker, but he’s developed something most Brazilian athletes don’t: a jab. His fight with Cruz, we saw a razor close fight with an inconsistent fighter in Cruz. Now, Bunes will outwork Horiuchi for a decision, using a gameplan custom fit to the Oyama style of forward moving striking and aggressive grappling.
Luciano Ramos +220 vs Marcus McGhee -300
At 8-7, we’d think that Ramos would be an even bigger underdog. He’s coming off a knockout loss in boxing last April, and hasn’t competed in eleven months. McGhee is fighting out of the always formidable MMA Lab in Arizona. At 5-1, each of his victories are via knockout, including a 3-2 amateur career with all finishes ranging back to 2012. Both men have been training for eleven years, but McGee has never suffered a knockout loss, unlike the two Ramos suffered in just 23 months.
McGhee BJJ Footage
Our only question in betting for McGhee is his BJJ. Ramos has a few submission wins, and if McGhee’s grappling isn’t up to par it could remove him from a parlay pick. His striking improves with each fight, and his full time move from Detroit to the Lab happened after his first grappling loss. While we couldn’t find any footage of his recent grappling training,
McGhee by TKO
In his last showing, Marcus was a cut above any mid level strikers. Looking at Ramos’ boxing footage, we don’t see why he’ll even be able to develop his wrestling in the face of a striker this much better than him. McGhee is worth the parlay pick. He’s a fighter that has reorganized his life around the sport, and is putting in full time effort to improve.
The MMA Lab’s Marcus McGhee got back into the win column tonight when he knocked out Adam Sellers pic.twitter.com/oTKXSaMFjT
— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) November 11, 2022
Eric Fimbres -285 vs Tony Charles +210
Towering over the competition at 6’6’’, Fimbres went undefeated in his six fight amateur career. His 48 second finish in December 2021 was his last fight, and he’s struggled to find opponents for fourteen months. Charles is 6’3’’ from AKA, and his career has been rocky. During his five year amateur run, he went 8-6, then was knocked out in a pro debut.
Is Fimbres at Siege MMA?
There are only a few active fighters at Siege MMA, and they’ve yet to produce any major athletes. Luckily for us, Fimbres made things a little easier. His social media confirmed that he made a recent move to Fight Ready, one of the world’s premier MMA facilities. He’s even training directly with Henry Ceudo.
Fimbres Beats Charles on Ground and with Jab
Fimbres has an easy three inch reach and Charles has struggled with the jab in the past. Looking at Charles’ record, you’ll see three finish losses by ground strikes or submission. He’s lost to moderate grapplers like Robert Davis, and it looks like he’s more interested in traditional stand up than developing his BJJ or wrestling. Fimbres will win on the ground by size alone, but also with superior technical focus, making his -285 an easy parlay along Marcus McGhee.
Great fight between Eric Fimbres and Marcus Walston 😱🥊
Watch the full video on our youtube channel: https://t.co/IKnvE71TaL#boxingtraining #boxeo pic.twitter.com/VSPwDsySa5
— Elite Fight Night (@EAFL_MMA) September 25, 2020
Cedric Katambwa -350 vs Adam Garcia +250
Katambwa struggles to finish most fighters. He has knockout power, but he’s motivated to win decisions and learned from his loss to 4-2 Levi Escobar to conserve his energy. Undefeated Adam Garcia is the opposite. Three fights, three finishes all in 2022. He’s a wrecking machine, but he’s yet to face anyone with real talent or more than four bouts.
LFA 149 Fighter Backgrounds
Adam ‘Vista’ is a 10th Planet BJJ fighter with a history in bodybuilding. His background in weight lifting not only gives him a great base for fighting, it makes us think his power is deeply underestimated. Katambwa is a martial artist, and his history of Muay Thai amateur bouts will make him a technical challenge for Adam. What we don’t see is the x-factor. We called Cedric’s win over James Hay back at LFA 135, and we don’t think he has it Saturday night.
Garcia Finishes Katambwa in Two Rounds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj07_26jJwA
This is our biggest upset pick of the evening. After reviewing the Katambwa loss, we see Adam steamrolling him with superior athletics. Garcia is physical inside the cage, and often the technician’s biggest pitfall is forgetting how to manage pure aggression. Expect Garcia to look like he’s shot out of a cannon, and bet his money line for 2.5 times your wager in winnings.
Chris Brant -210 vs Princeton Jackson +160
Jackson is a 2-0 pro with a loss to Cedric Katambwa back in 2018. He’s a ground fighter, and has been competing in local competition as far back as 2017. His opponent is from the Goat Shed, a Florida gym that’s been a scrap yard for rough fighters. Brant has knocked out three of his last five opponents, and his 7-2 amateur record is only via submission.
The Toughest Fight on the Card
We’ll say it now, keep the Brant vs Jackson odds off your LFA 149 parlay pick. Online, Brant is a big favorite, with analysts and fans claiming he’ll blast through Jackson. The reality is that Jackson has a significant ground game advantage, and has been submitting fighters longer than Brant has been training. Fight footage for either fighter is tough to find.
Numero 1⃣1⃣
Chris Brant, Island Fights 75. Video original: https://t.co/AmxkHqxd54 pic.twitter.com/KeEjvaXmn5— Barrele la pierna (@Barrelelapierna) November 7, 2022
While Brant has one punch knockout power, he’s not put anyone away with better than a 7-3 amateur record, all against midwestern opponents. People who don’t see that this is a massive step up in competition for Brant don’t understand his fight history.
Bradley Emmett +180 vs Paul Marghitas -240
This is the only prelim with odds. The favorite is a 21 year old fighter out of MMA Lab. He won his first fight by split decision, and hasn’t evolved beyond his wrestling roots. Emmett is from Jackson Wink MMA, and smoked his first opponent back in 2021 with a 90 second submission. We think Emmett is given a bad position because of Jackson-Wink’s fall from major MMA competition. Paul’s first showing was lackluster, and he couldn’t have evolved in the four months since his last fight.
Emmett by Decision at LFA 149
Marghitas ate some absolute bombs in his bout with Deshawn White and won by control time. Emmett has fantastic finishing mechanics, and moved to JacksonWink over the past year from Illinois. We expect him to look even better than he did back at Shamrock FC 333, when he was laser sharp and very large for the featherweight division. Expect the Emmett upset for 1.8 times your wager in winnings.
How to Win Big at LFA 149
Often, it’s the cards with less experienced fighters that offer multiple underdog wins. LFA 149 has a majority of fighters with limited experience beyond local shows and amateur bouts. Analysts underplay the importance of power and conditioning at these lower level showings, and that leaves a fantastic opportunity for bettors to win the night. Bet the fights for an exciting night in Arizona at the Gila River Resort, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
