This card has been criticized for not being exciting enough, but the betting odds are great for sports bettors looking to capitalize on some UFC action this weekend.
The UFC Fight Night 219 odds from Bovada have Over/Unders and money lines for each fight, but we’re speculating on the specialty and prop bet odds we’ll see later this week from the top UFC betting sites.
UFC Fight Night 219 Predictions
Here are our best betting picks for UFC Fight Night 219 along with the odds and our confidence rating for each prediction.
| Bet | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Andrade Money Line | -190 | High, Possible Parlay Pick |
| Wright vs Pauga: Under 1.5 Rounds | -155 | Moderate, High Confidence Under 2.5 Rounds |
| Josh Parisian Money line | +200 | Moderate |
| William Knight Money Line | -115 | High |
| Hernandez vs Miller: Under 1.5 Rounds | +120 | Moderate |
| Mayra Bueno Silva Money Line | -425 | Parlay Pick |
| Khusein Askhabov Money Line | -130 | Parlay Pick |
| OSP Money Line | +185 | Low to Moderate |
| Nazim Sadykhov Money Line | -175 | High |
| Ashton Fletcher Money Line | -250 | Moderate |
| Clayton Carpenter | -290 | High, Possible Parlay Pick |
Parlay and possible parlay picks are good for building out a UFC parlay card. Include moderate bets and upsets to diversify your betting ticket, rather than pooling your cash to one big bet. We will have more cross-event parlay bets available in our Best MMA Bets of the Week column.
UFC Fight Night 219 Fight by Fight Prediction
Erin Blanchfield +155 vs Jessica Andrade -190
Andrade just fought in January, and we had her as a top parlay pick over Murphy. She delivered a brutal beating, scoring 231 to Murphy’s 100 significant shots. UFC Fight Night 219 odds have Blanchfield as the underdog at 10-1 with a perfect UFC record of 4-0.
A few key factors give the win to Andrade. Namely, Murphy and Blanchfield’s similar 68% and 69% takedown accuracy. There is no question Andrade will win on the feet, but Murphy failed all 15 of her takedown attempts, and we see Andrade stuffing the takedowns of Blanchfield, making the -190 money line an easy top bet.
Jessica Andrade is a terrifying woman pic.twitter.com/k1H25ZXj9l
— The Filthy Casual (@MMAfilthycasual) January 21, 2023
Jordan Wright +230 vs Zac Pauga -290
At 2-4 in the UFC, Wright has struggled with power punchers, despite landing two knockouts of his own. Pauga lost his UFC debut by TKO in the second, making the under a top bet. The under 1.5 is surprisingly high at -155, but we’ll be moving to the under 2.5 rounds for a safer bet later in the week.
Jamal Pogues -250 vs Josh Parisian +200
The underdog, Parisian, is coming off the third TKO win of his UFC career, while Pogues is a UFC newcomer after back-to-back DWCS wins. Pogues is a control time focused fighter and Parisian’s loss to Don’Tale Mayes feels like a guaranteed repeat.
To us, Pogues hands are very underdeveloped and Parisian has a solid chance of landing something big early on. Pogues is untested against UFC level finishing power, and we’ll learn a lot about him from this fight.
Marcin Prachnio -105 vs William Knight -115
At 2-3 in his last five, Knight’s 5’10 stature is tough to stay competitive at 205 lbs. Prachnio is gigantic, but it hasn’t helped. He’s 2-4 in the UFC overall, losing to Alvey, Ankalaev and Lins. His win over Rountree could be his saving grace, but Knight’s takedowns are going to overshadow the height advantage given Prachnio’s 53% takedown defense.
Alex Hernandez -240 vs Jim Miller +190
Miller is having a late career comeback, winning his last three fights by finish. Hernandez hasn’t been right since his loss to Cerrone in 2019, and is facing back-to-back finish losses to Moicano and Quarantillo.
It’s getting tougher to bet on Miller, but the Under 1.5 Rounds at +120 matches over half of both men’s performances. If Miller loses, we think it’s because he’s aged out. The UFC Fight Night 219 odds are being generous with the under on this one.
Lina Lansberg +315 vs Mayra Bueno Silva -425
This is the most one-sided fight of the night according to UFC Fight Night 219 odds, and we agree. Lansberg has dropped to 2.7 significant striker per minute after landing only 76 across her last three flights (all decisions).
Silva is a high pace fighter that will push the action while standing. She will also hunt the submission on the ground. Lansberg struggles against anyone willing to dictate the pace, and Silva will move forward into the fight constantly.
Iron sharpens Iron!
Khamzat Chimaev and Khusein Askhabov (23-0, record) training together at the Tiger Muay Thai gym in Phuket, Thailand.P.s – uncle @danawhite needs to seriously get Khusein in the UFC, ASAP! pic.twitter.com/WBHMfP79gO
— Borz ⛰ 🐺 (@Borz4562) January 24, 2022
Jamall Emmers +110 vs Khusein Askhabov -130
Undefeated at 23-0, Askhabov seems like a fighter that should be well above -130. Emmers is 1-3 in the UFC, getting knocked out at DWCS and submitted in his last showing in 2021.
WWFC is an East Asian promotion where Askhabov has been the reigning champion, finishing 18 of his 23 opponents since 2012. Given Emmer’s history of poor submission defense, we think Khusein will cut right through him.
Ovince St. Preux +185 Philipe Lins -230
As a fan, we’d love to see OSP come back, but he’s approaching 40 years old this April and his chin is gone. Lins lost to Arlovski in 2020, so this is his second classic fighter. At 37 himself, Lins is late to the game.
If OSP has a win left in him, Lins is the man to do it against. He absorbs more shots than he dishes out, and his knockout loss to Boser revealed some weaknesses in his defense that were still exploitable against Prachinio. This is a tough fight to predict, so we’re going with our gut.
Evan Elder +145 vs Nazim Sadykhov -175
A Longo-Weidman MMA fighter, Sadykhov has six pro finishes at 7-1. His DWCS showing was a round 3 TKO. Elder lost his UFC debut last April to Preston Parsons, but has looked great the rest of his career.
Both men have padded records, and Sadykhov is the only one with a win over a decent pro. We’re banking on his money line for a $157 payout per $100 wager. Elder fans should bet the under or no decision props later in the week.
A.J. Fletcher -250 vs Themba Gorimbo +200
UFC Fight Night 219 odds are being generous to Fletcher after back-to-back UFC losses in 2022. Gorimbo is a South African submission specialist that has been knocked out before.
The reputation of South African BJJ as being inferior isn’t far off. Gorimbo could have skated by on subpar grappling, and Fletcher’s history of submission wins proves he’s well above that level.
Clayton Carpenter -290 vs Juancamilo Ronderos +230
Undefeated Carpenter won a decision at DWCS and was offered the 4-1 Ronderos as a welcome to the UFC fight. Carpenter looks good on paper, and has all the tools to beat Ronderos with ease.
Juancamilo Ronderos was an amateur champion, but has been forced to take time off after a cannabis use/ positive THC test suspension. This time off and Carpenter’s aggressive up and down fighting will put Ronderos on his heels.
UFC Fight Night Andrade vs Blanchfield Anti-Hype
When a fight is billed as not being exciting for fans, it can mean a couple of things. First, the fighters are boring and the fights are one-sided. This is good for bettors. We love predictable fighters that perform with an even cadence and ability that does not dramatically change fight to fight.
Old fighters can be more predictable, because they’ve lost explosiveness and dynamism with age. A card being boring doesn’t mean that it should be looked over on your betting ticket. Tune in February 18th, 2023, and place your bets early before the odds shift nearing fight night.
Sources:
https://www.bovada.lv/sports/ufc-mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-andrade-vs-blanchfield
http://ufcstats.com/event-details/f21a3d68fb9df387
