On Saturday, March 4, the UFC will be live from the T-Mobile Arena, in Las Vegas, for UFC 285: Jones vs Gane. This PPV event features the return of Jon Jones as he takes on Cyril Gane for the vacant heavyweight belt.
In total, UFC 285 features 14 fights. The top UFC betting sites have odds available for the entire lineup. You can expect more prop bets to be listed as we get closer to fight night.
UFC 285 Predictions
Notice the slew of one-sided fights at UFC 285. This card is ripe for another parlay ticket as there are a handful of moneylines above -500. The following odds are courtesy of Bovada.
| UFC 285 Picks | Odds at Bovada | Confidence Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Jones vs Gane: Over 2.5 Rounds | -300 | High |
| Valentina Shevchenko Money Line | -675 | High, Parlay Pick |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov Money Line | -525 | High, Parlay Pick of the Night |
| Bo Nickal Money Line | -2000 | High, Parlay Pick |
| Jalin Turner Money Line | +175 | Moderate- High, Upset Pick of the Night |
| Cody Garbrandt Money Line | -185 | Moderate, Value Bet |
| Derek Brunson Money Line | +185 | High |
| Ribas vs Araujo: Over 2.5 rounds | -275 | Moderate |
| Julian Marquez Money Line | +123 | Moderate |
| Ian Garry Money Line | -725 | High, Parlay Pick |
| Cameron Saaiman Money LIne | -310 | Moderate |
| Tabatha Ricci Money Line | -285 | Low |
| Farid Basharat Money Line | -525 | Moderate, Parlay Pick |
| Esteban Ribovics Money Line | TBD | High |
UFC 285: Jones vs Gane Odds for 3/4/2023
We found only two prop bet picks across this entire fight card, but look for more prop bet opportunities as we move closer to the weekend. The full 17 to 21 betting markets that Bovada usually offers is open for UFC 285 odds.
Ciryl Gane +140 vs Jon Jones -170
In possibly the most anticipated fighter return ever in the UFC, Jones comes back as a favorite after opening as the underdog in UFC futures.
There are two major factors when predicting the Gane vs Jones fight: Gane’s takedown defense and Jones’ ring rust. Jon Jones has been out for three years as of February, and that 37 months away can have a major effect on a fighter.
Returning in another weight class against a champion caliber fighter is no small feat. Gane has never been finished. Additionally, Jones’ last three bouts went the distance, which makes the Over props an interesting bet.
| Stats | Jones | Gane |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Landed Strikes in Last 3 Decisions | 288 | 300 |
| Takedowns Given Up in UFC | 2 (Cormier and Gustaffson) | 4 (All Francis Ngannou) |
| Last Weigh In | 205 | 245 |
Fans see a finish, so the Over 2.5 rounds (making it to 2:30 of round 3) is at -300. While this bet feels boring, we expect a first round feel out period for Jones, followed by a late game increase in pace from Gane.
We predicted that Gane would win back in January, and we stand by that money line, but the Over is the superior bet given the UFC 285 betting odds.
If you’re brave, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance, Yes’ prop at -125 is increasingly likely, given Gane’s UFC record and Jones dedication to point fighting with age.
Alexa Grasso +450 vs Valentina Shevchenko -675
Shevchenko has fought twice a year since 2016, but only once in 2022. She’s coming back with an early title defense after a split decision win over Santos, scoring 77 to 55 in significant strikes.
Grasso is on a four-fight winning streak, but her losses to Esparza and Suarez put her at a major underdog status. She was losing to Joanne Wood prior to a flash submission win late in the round, and was out-pointed in her upset win against Barber.
Shevchenko is going to smash Grasso horribly, and betting the UFC 285 odds for ‘Shevchenko Inside the Distance’ when they’re released on Wednesday is a good idea as a value bet. Bet the Shevchenko money line with Rakhmonov and Nickal as a sure-fire three fight parlay ticket.
At 14-0, Shavkat Rakhmonov is a can’t-miss prospect in the WW division 👀🍿
[ #UFCVegas47 | Saturday | LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/gBHgTFihwL
— UFC (@ufc) January 31, 2022
Geoff Neal +380 vs Shavkat Rakhmonov -525
Rakhmonov’s money line is our UFC 285 odds for parlay pick of the night. Neal lost to Magny definitively in 2021, and Shavkat crushed Magny with impunity. Neal is a fighter who likes to trade, boasting a 5.27 to 5.28 significant strikes landed in his UFC career.
This is a disaster against Shavkat, who’s 1.39 strikes absorbed per minute is half his average landing rate. Look for Shavkat by Submission odds later this week, and take the ‘Fight Goes the Distance, No’ prop bet at -105 if you’re a fan of Geoff Neal.
Neal’s wins over Muhammad and Luque make him formidable, and we could have another Khamzat vs Burns situation, where Rakhmonov is a boogieman that gets shown his limits. We see this as unlikely, and expect a Rakhmonov title fight after a swift finish of the #7 contender.
Jalin Turner +175 vs Mateusz Gamrot -220
Gamrot lost his most recent showing against Beneil Dariush and reach was a factor. We had him losing against Arman Tsarukyan, but he rallied and took the fight with control time despite being knocked down. Turner poses some specific challenges, specifically a seven-inch reach advantage and lanky limbs that find submissions off the takedown attempt.
Turner has a history of giving up control time, specifically in his loss to Frevola in 2019, and he was starched by Vicente Luque at welterweight, causing him to drop to 155 pounds.
We agree with the UFC 285 betting odds, the under 2.5 rounds is a better bet at -155, but we’re picking Turner as the upset of the night. It’s a big return for a fighter on a winning streak with the exact tools to beat Gamrot.
Bo Nickal -2000 vs Jamie Pickett +900
Nickal is 3-0 in MMA after two DWCS submission wins last year. He’s entering the UFC against Pickett, who is now 3-6 for the promotion in what is a clear feeder fight. Nickal is supposed to smash Jamie and he knows it.
This makes him dangerous, and Pickett is going to swing for the fences or at least he should if he has any chance of winning this fight. The Under 1.5 Rounds at -285 is a fantastic value bet, but we recommend the parlay above all else. Nickal is on the road to bigger and better things. Pickett has shown lackluster performances in all but one UFC appearance.
Cody Garbrandt -185 vs Trevin Jones +140
Going 1-5 in your last six and somehow still ending up the favorite is some serious star power. Jones is 1-3 in the UFC after an overturned loss to Timur Valiev. His last two fights were decision losses via beating from the Snow Leopard and Raoni Barcelos.
Garbrandt has been inactive since 2021 and hasn’t held a title since 2017. Now 7-5 in the UFC, it’s tough to see how he was at one time an unstoppable force in the bantamweight division.
At 31, Cody will get to put his footwork back on display against Jones, who can’t strike at Cody’s level and has an 11% takedown accuracy. Our UFC 285 prediction is the Garbrandt money line as a high paying value bet, with no other bet on this fight a confident pick.
Derek Brunson +185 vs Dricus Du Plessis -230
We had Brunson beating Cannonier, but he was finished decisively after scoring a knockdown and fading out. He now faces the 18-2 Du Plessis, who’s four UFC fights include three finishes.
Du Plessis is a takedown machine, with a high pace of striking. He’s absorbed a total 151 significant strikes in the UFC, and he looked better against Till than he did Tavares.
This fight is a tad unpredictable, because Du Plessis’ takedown defense is untested, and hovering at 50% despite only two attempts at the takedown across four fights. Brunson is going to test Du Plessis’ cage wrestling early and often. We see a Brunson win, with a slight bias toward the Over 1.5 rounds at -155.
Amanda Ribas -120 vs Viviane Araujo +100
Ribas has struggled with contenders, going 1-2 since 2021. Both women have lost to Chookagian, but Ribas was more competitive, creating a split decision that came down to a choice between control time and significant strikes landed.
Araujo has never been finished and her 90% takedown defense makes this interesting for Ribas, who usually has no trouble scoring some control time.
The Over 2.5 rounds is listed at -275 and we agree, but will be looking at the UFC 285 odds for Over 1.5 rounds when they are released and betting on them if they’re under -400.
Julian Marquez +123 vs Marc-Andre Barriault -145
Marquez took a beating last June that we fear may affect future performances for the submission specialist. Still, Barriault is coming off a submission loss after 133 seconds last April.
His 3-5 UFC run is going to be tough to turn around, especially without quality takedowns or first round knockout power. Our UFC 285 prediction is the Underdog, ‘The Cuban Missile Crisis.’ We expect a submission win given Barriault’s lack of takedown defense, especially when matched up against a tenacious wrestler.
Ian Garry 🇮🇪 is BACK and he will fight Song Kenan 🇨🇳 at #UFC285 on March 4th in Las Vegas.
Are we expecting another highlight reel knockout from The Future? #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/1pm4P1ToJu
— Combat Sports Today 👊 (@CSTodayNews) January 28, 2023
Ian Garry -725 vs Kenan Song +475
Garry is undefeated at 10-0, being matched up with Kenan, who’s 18-6 record includes 2 UFC losses and 3 UFC finishes. Kenan is one of the more dangerous fighters Garry has faced in total finishing ability, but his recent TKO loss and two years out of the cage make him a tough upset to bet on.
Garry is one of our favorite MMA strikers and a rising talent in the UFC Welterweight division. We’re happy to see him taking a slow climb to contention at only 25 years old.
Cameron Saaiman -310 vs Mana Martinez +250
2-2 in the UFC, Mana is a scrapper who rallied a split decision against Davis in spite of two knockdowns scored. Saaiman is an undefeated knockout artist that can’t defend the takedown.
It should be a Saaiman win, but we’re also interested in the ‘No Decision’ prop bets, a -135 value bet for those interested in Martinez’s upset ability, despite no UFC finishes.
Saaiman is a fine addition for a five-fight parlay, but definitely our last UFC 285 prediction worth adding to a night of one-sided fights.
Jessica Penne +225 vs Tabatha Ricci -285
With the UFC since 2012, the 40-year-old Penne faces a 28-year-old athlete in Ricci, who struggled in 2021, but has since out-paced two fighters with quality wrestling alone.
Penne’s 40% takedown defense is moderate, but her submission work is the real fear. Ricci will be forced to contend with Penne’s submissions or her reach advantage and superior striking. I think the Ricci camp plans a boring control-based decision while Penne works a finish.
This is the toughest fight to predict on the card and we offer a low confidence decision to Ricci who is overrated in her -285 position as she faces her toughest challenge since Fiorot.
Darmon Blackshear +365 vs Farid Basharat -525
Basharat is the brother of the undefeated Javid Basharat, now 4-0 in the UFC. Farid won his DWCS showing via one sided decision, and faces Blackshear after ‘The Monster’ went to a draw in his UFC debut to Youssef Zalal.
Tall for a bantamweight, Blackshear struggled against the lanky Zalal, and we struggled to understand the UFC’s decision in not giving Zalal the win after landing triple the significant strikes.
Basharat has fought only moderate quality fighters. Blackshear is his first true test, so this is a fight we’re considering a quality bet rather than a Parlay addition in spite of the UFC 285 betting odds massive favor of Basharat.
Esteban Ribovics +160 vs Kamuela Kirk (Loik Radzhabov -200 Out)
Kirk is 1-2 and replacing Radzhabov on short notice. We expect Ribovics to move to favorite status, since Kirk has been finished twice in the UFC and Ribovics has repeatedly shown finishing power, including a DWCS 90 second knockout.
Ribovics is undefeated and Kirk is on par with other fighters Ribovics has beaten with a 12-5 record. Look for the under props if you’re disinterested in the Esteban money line once released.
Massive UFC 285 Parlay Opportunity
The three-fight parlay between Nickal, Valentina, and Rakhomonov is one of the highest confidence three fight parlays we’ve seen on a single UFC card. These fighters are destined to meet or stay at championship level, with a collective payout of $43.52 per $100 wagered, a -230 value bet.
Sources:
http://ufcstats.com/event-details/1ccff7f0cfdf85eb
https://www.actionnetwork.com/betting-calculators/betting-odds-calculator
