2025 Academy Awards Odds: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Best Picture Odds and Pick

Maria opened as the favorite to win Best Picture in March, but it has since fallen way down the board! Currently, Maria is a longshot at +8000 to win, while The Brutalist has taken over the top spot in the 2025 Oscars odds for Best Picture.

Anora edged ahead before the Golden Globes but has slipped to +175 from +400 after losing at the Globes. Currently, The Brutalist has a 36.4% implied probability of winning for Best Picture.

Despite being favored, The Brutalist should probably have shorter Oscar odds after winning the Golden Globe. In my opinion, the biggest threat to The Brutalist is Emilia Perez. The movie had a fantastic showing at the Golden Globes and will be highly regarded at the Academy Awards.

Nevertheless, the story about architect Laszlo Toth escaping the Holocaust and starting a new life in the United States carries more appeal for Best Picture. It focuses on the all-time lows of humanity and the rebirth of a new life in the US. The film scored a 92% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and 89% on Metacritic.

Starring an elite cast including leading actor Adrien Brody, the nearly four-hour film has gained worldwide recognition and should continue to garner attention at the Academy Awards. At +175, there remains plenty of betting value on The Brutalist!

Best Actor Odds and Pick

Adrien Brody remains a -150 favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor. The Academy Awards odds didn’t budge for Best Actor after he scored the award at the Golden Globes. Brody went into the Golden Globes at -150 and continues to have a 60% implied chance to win.

In 2003, captured the Best Actor Oscar for his leading role in The Pianist. Critics are calling for a similar performance out of the star, who is made for these types of roles.

The film is centered around Brody’s portrayal of Toth. He is responsible for carrying the story and reportedly does it brilliantly, according to moviegoers who viewed the film at TIFF.

Brody’s odds for Best Actor should shorten before the Academy Awards in March. He had +100 odds to win in November and has since shifted to -150. In short, there is still value in Brody to win the Oscar at this price!

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Pick

A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin has taken a firm lead over the field for Best Supporting Actor. At -800 odds, Culkin has an 88.9% implied probability of capturing the first Oscar of his career.

In our last Academy Awards 2025 odds update in November, Culkin was a -500 favorite with an 83.3% implied chance. In short, his odds of winning continue to improve. This is in large part due to his win at the Golden Globes to open the year.

While I believe Guy Pearce is getting more recognition for his performance in The Brutalist, he appears to be overmatched by Culkin. For all the success and accolades that Culkin has received for his role in Succession, which included an Emmy, he is still searching for his first Oscar.

I expect Culkin’s long wait to come to an end on March 2. That said, there isn’t any value on his Oscars odds at -800. So, I will pick him to win Best Supporting Actor, but -800 odds aren’t worth betting on.

Best Actress Odds and Pick

There has been a significant shake-up in the odds for Best Actress over the last two months. Mikey Madison’s price has regressed from -175 to -130 since losing at the Golden Globes. Meanwhile, Demi Moore’s odds have skyrocketed from +900 to +110!

It is difficult to win major awards in the horror genre, but Moore has a big chance here. The 62-year-old Hollywood veteran’s implied probability of winning moved from 10% to 47.6%!

The move happened after Moore upset the field at the Golden Globes. Nevertheless, Madison remains the favorite for portraying exotic dancer Anora in Anora, but there is a real chance that Moore will overtake Madison for the win.

Beyond her excellent performance in The Substance, she is a well-liked actress around Hollywood, who has been waiting a while for her time in the spotlight at the Academy Awards.

The Academy could feel compelled to give the nod to Moore in a race they find difficult to call. The way I see it, the best value on betting apps for Best Actress is Moore at +110 odds!

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Pick

Zoe Saldana’s 2025 Oscar odds have shifted substantially since the Golden Globe winners were announced. She is a massive -800 favorite after going into this year as a -200 favorite before she won the Globe for Best Supporting Actress.

Danielle Deadwyler and Jennifer Grey opened as +230 betting favorites back last March. However, Grey has fallen off the board, while Deadwyler has slipped to +900.

Emilia Perez was one of the big winners of the Golden Globes, and I suspect that it will continue at the Academy Awards. It has an outside chance of winning Best Picture, but the more realistic result is Saldana for Best Actress.

Zoe Saldaña wins the #GoldenGlobe for best performance by a female actor in a supporting role in any motion picture. https://t.co/24rsV7o7AU pic.twitter.com/SNhIVTUhp0

— Variety (@Variety) January 6, 2025

Saldana closed at -225 to win at the Golden Globes, which looking back, wasn’t large enough odds. Her portrayal of Rita Mora Castro in Emilia Perez was beloved by the Globes, and it should carry over to the Academy in Hollywood.

There is no value in -800 odds but consider Saldana for your Oscar picks if you are in an Academy Awards pool or if the price dips!

Best Director Odds and Pick

The Brutalist director, Brady Corbet, has established himself as the clear favorite to win the Oscar for Best Director. Last month, Corbet and Sean Baker were co-favorites to win the award at +115.

Corbet has improved to -300, which suggests a 75% implied chance of winning. Jon M. Chu of Wicked has witnessed an incredible rise in the betting markets from +1500 to +120! Although I respect Corbet’s chances here, this massive shift for Chu can’t be understated.

Despite not winning the Golden Globe for Best Director, Chu’s odds for the Oscars have flown down the board. At +1500, Chu had a 6.3% chance to win, and now online bookies are affording him a 45.5% implied percentage at +120.

Nevertheless, the Academy Awards typically don’t like directors of musicals. Chu wasn’t even nominated for Best Director at the Golden Globes, never mind winning the award! Additionally, there have been complaints about the cinematography in Wicked, so getting the nod will be tough here.

Brady Corbet wins Best Director – Motion Picture for #TheBrutalist at the 2025 #GoldenGlobes and sends his condolences to Aubrey Plaza and Jeff Baena's families. pic.twitter.com/a9Vg3Rols7

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) January 6, 2025

In short, Corbet should follow up his win at the Golden Globes with another big score at the Oscars! The Brutalist is set to dominate, including Corbet for Best Director. I think he should have -500 to -700 odds to win, so -300 isn’t an awful price.