On Saturday, April 15, the UFC will be live from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, for UFC on ESPN 44.
The main event of the evening is an exciting featherweight battle between former champ Max Holloway and rising star Arnold Allen. This featured bout could be another explosive contest just like what we witnessed at UFC 287 with Adesanya and Pereira.
In total, there are 14 fights scheduled for this weekend’s event. You can bet on the entire UFC on ESPN 44 card at the best UFC betting sites.
UFC on ESPN 44 Odds
We see three upsets on the main card alone, with prelim moneylines that we expect to move closer to even by Friday.
The UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Holloway card has several fighters with fading durability up against fresh and talented prospects. This blend of matchmaking definitely allows for multiple UFC betting strategies.
All UFC on ESPN 44 betting odds are courtesy of Bovada.
| Pick | Odds | Confidence | Payout per $100 Wager |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen | +150 | Moderate-High | $250 |
| Quarantillo vs Barboza: Under 2.5 Rounds | -105 | Moderate | $195 |
| Azamat Murzakanov | +155 | High | $355 |
| Tanner Boser | +100 | Moderate | $200 |
| Chris Gutierrez | -220 | High | $145 |
| Clay Guida | +185 | Moderate | $285 |
| TJ Brown | +146 | High | $246 |
| Brandon Royval | +135 | Low | $235 |
| Ed Herman | +193 | Moderate | $293 |
| Piera Rodriguez | -110 | Moderate-High | $190 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | -125 | High | $180 |
| Bruna Brasil | -200 | High | $150 |
| Gaston Bolanos | -190 | Moderate | $152 |
| Lucie Pudilova | -145 | Moderate | $168 |
UFC on ESPN 44 Predictions
This is a competitive card with little room for a full parlay ticket. Coupled with PFL and other MMA shows later this week, you can get a confident parlay addition out of 1 or 2 UFC on ESPN 44 betting picks. Consider looking at more specific props later in the week, or adding Over 1.5 round bets on fights like Guida vs Rafa.
Arnold Allen +150 vs Max Holloway -185
The number one contender position at featherweight is up for grabs, and Holloway won’t let it slip easily. At 19-1, Allen remains undefeated in the UFC after knocking out Kattar last October. Allen shocked us with his stand-up game and defied our ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop bet call.
UFC on ESPN 44 odds for Holloway are just a touch above the -135 opening against Calvin Kattar, where Holloway landed a UFC record 445 significant strikes. Odds vs Allen are way down from his last non-title fight against Rodriguez, a -375 opening. Expect Holloway to climb to -200 at sports betting sites by fight night.
| Fighter | Height, Reach | UFC Finishes in Last 5 | UFC Finishes | Total Sig Strikes Absorbed in last 5 | Takedown Offense, Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holloway | 5’11’’, 69’’ | 0 | 11 | 785 | 53%, 84% |
| Allen | 5’8’’, 70’’ | 2 | 4 | 167 | 60%, 76% |
Holloway has faced a greater set of UFC opponents, including the champion three times. This isn’t necessarily a boon. Allen is fresh, and has taken little damage overall.
Holloway’s recent performances have been high quality, but we’re concerned about his durability and pace of fights. Our UFC on ESPN 44 prediction for the main event goes to the up-and-coming Arnold Allen.
Billy Quarantillo -170 vs Edson Barboza +140
After thirteen months off, the 37-year-old Barboza steps back into the octagon on a 3-7 run. In those ten fights since 2017, he’s been knocked down four times and KO’d three times, once against Kevin Lee who wasn’t awarded a knockdown because Barboza was grounded.
Quarantillo is in a weird position. His last loss was to Shane Burgos, the only man Barboza has knocked out since 2019. Quarantillo is the UFC on ESPN 44 betting favorite for this fight, if only because of his finishing power matched up against a fading (but higher level) striker.
Current odds show a prop bet at Under 2.5 rounds for -105. This is a value bet that’s worth a $20-50 wager for the average bettor, but should be kept off any parlay tickets. These men share a collaborative 9 of 16 fights ended by Rounds 2.5 in their last eight bouts.
Azamat Murzakanov +155 vs Dustin Jacoby -190
Undefeated Murzakanov comes in as the underdog, in spite of three consecutive knockouts against Devin Clark, Nchukwi and DWCS fighter Matheus Scheffel. Jacoby just lost to Rountree, another short 205-pound fighter via split decision, making him 7-3-1 in the UFC since 2011.
We’re concerned with Jacoby’s age, now 35, as well as his quality of opponent. He had a four-fight winning streak in between the losses to Cutelaba and Rountree. However, those opponents had UFC records of 4-2-1, 5-3, 0-3 and 5-7.
Compared to the undefeated record of Azamat, Jacoby has been facing lower caliber athletes, often at the end of their careers.
🇷🇺 Azamat Murzakanov avec le KO au 3ème round ! pic.twitter.com/js5svBajnQ
— Rage MMA (@MMA_Rage) March 12, 2022
Azamat should win this fight and it’s likely the last time we’ll see him offer these odds until he breaks into title contention.
Jacoby could knock him out, but Murzakanov’s chin hasn’t even been tested, let alone wobbled. Couple that with Murzakanov’s 2.44 strikes absorbed per minute to Jacoby’s 3.98 and you have a recipe for another underdog win.
Ion Cutelaba -120 vs Tanner Boser +100
UFC on ESPN 44 Odds for Boser don’t seem to reflect Cutelaba’s recent losing streak going 1-5-1 since 2019. Boser is 4-4 in the UFC, including unfortunate run-ins with a young Ciryl Gane and Ilir Latifi.
As far as style matchups go, Boser has never been finished but features only a 64% takedown defense. Ion gets finished regularly, 50% of the time in the UFC, but only three by KO. Ion will find top position for a long fight or Boser will catch him early for the knockout finish.
We see this fight as a coin toss, but Cutelaba’s recent performances have been nothing short of terrible, losing all three bouts in 13 total minutes of fighting. Boser has the momentum and the superior odds to bet on.
Chris Gutierrez -220 vs Pedro Munhoz +175
Now 1-4 with 1 no contest in six fights, Munhoz’s last win was over Jimmie Rivera in early 2021. His 7-1 run from 2016 to 2019 was the height of his career and included wins over Scoggins, Font and Garbrandt.
Gutierrez hasn’t fought any household names in the UFC other than his debut loss to Raoni Barcelos, so this is his chance to prove the momentum he has is worth betting on. Gutierrez is 7-0-1 record in eight UFC bouts.
‘The Young Punisher’ Munhoz isn’t far behind at 36. And taking 618 significant strikes in his last six fights doesn’t help his cause. We think Chris has the youthful advantage, and has been finishing his timing inside his last two fights much earlier than other showings.
Clay Guida +185 vs Rafa Garcia -230
Guida’s resurgence since switching to Team Alpha Male has brought him a 2-2 run, losing to the undefeated Madsen in 2021, and getting kneebarred by Puelles in 2022.
Rafa is now 3-3 in the UFC, winning only once by submission. Some grapplers’ submission style simply doesn’t translate to high level MMA, and that may be what we’re seeing here. Just because Guida was submitted by Puelles doesn’t mean he’ll get subbed by Rafa.
At a 45% takedown accuracy, Rafa will look to score early on Guida’s 68% takedown defense. That defense has improved in recent fights and he hasn’t given up any takedowns since 2020, which is a five-fight run of giving up no control time for Guida.
We consider age a massive factor, but Clay has that Arlovski effect. It’s as if his technique continues to improve. For that, we see a competitive fight with Guida coming out on top with the decision win. We would even consider that longshot prop bet ‘Guida by decision’ later in the week for a moderate confidence wager.
Bill Algeo -175 vs T.J. Brown +146
Algeo lost a razor thin decision to Fili in September where he landed more strikes than Fili at 81 to 59. Brown is a ground fighter to the bone, showing submission wins in DWCS and in his most recent fight with Silva. If T.J. can’t win the wrestling, he usually can’t win the fight.
Algeo has a paltry 55% takedown defense and no submission game to speak of. It cost him in all three of his early UFC losses, giving up 16 takedowns in three fights. We don’t think it’s improved, he just stopped fighting wrestlers.
This will be a close fight, but if Brown can risk closing the distance, he’ll find top position. For that, Brown gets our UFC on ESPN 44 prediction over Algeo. We think a submission win is possible.
September 27, 2020
A bonkers fight against Brandon Royval
Kai loses via guillotine in Rd 2 pic.twitter.com/ueiOxkGGHt
— Ocelot MMA (@Ocelot_MMA) July 25, 2022
Brandon Royval +155 vs Matheus Nicolau -190
Royval is 4-2 in the UFC, beating Schnell and Kara-France while losing only to championship quality fighters. Nicolau reminds us of Kara-France, and is simply not dynamic enough to keep the pace with Royval.
Additionally, Royval’s reach and southpaw stance will play a major factor in the striking exchanges. This is the most competitive fight on the card and we have limited confidence.
Ed Herman +193 vs Zak Cummings -240
After two years off, the 42-year-old UFC vet Ed Herman is back. He went on a three-fight winning streak from 2019 to 2020, and now faces the 38-year-old Zak Cummings.
Cummings has a better record in recent bouts, but hasn’t fought since 2020. Herman is bigger and more active than his submission focused counterpart. Herman has been submitted only once in the UFC, including when facing submission specialist and world champ Tahales Leites.
Gillian Robertson -110 vs Piera Rodriguez -110
Piera is putting her 9-0 record on the line against Robertson. This is striker vs grappler, as Robertson will look for top position and submission with aggression through the fight. Unfortunately, we don’t think she’ll find it. Rodriguez will win with a measured, round winning boxing style and athletic counter wrestling.
Daniel Zellhuber -125 vs Lando Vannata +105
Zellhuber was outpointed by Ogden, something we were nearly sure couldn’t happen. It revealed plenty of holes in the young man’s game. We see Vannata as the right warm up fight, hoping the 24-year-old is given space to improve as he progresses through the ranks.
Bruna Brasil -200 vs Denise Gomes +160
Brasil is a vicious fighter coming off a knockout win as the underdog. Gomes is a striker with limited grappling capability.
This fight is going to be exciting to say the least, but Brasil is more dynamic with a wrestling advantage when needed. She also has a clear power advantage on the feet. The UFC on ESPN 44 odds are right for this prelim value bet.
Aaron Phillips +157 vs Gaston Bolanos -190
0-3 in the UFC, Phillips struggles to find his place. He gets a chance to play gatekeeper against the 6-3 Gaston Bolanos.
Bolanos can’t grapple to save his life, but he’s a knockout machine and an exciting UFC addition. We’re siding with the UFC odds.
Joselyne Edwards +115 vs Lucie Pudilova -145
Pudliova had her first win last August, ending a four-fight losing streak to some of the toughest names in the game including Shevchenko, Kish, and Aldana. Edwards is competitive, but struggles against wrestlers of any kind. Pudilova should get the takedown early and often for a win on the ground or decision.
UFC on ESPN 44: Close Fights and Fight of the Year Material
Most of these fighters like to see gritty decision wins. It’s from cards like this one that we see highly competitive back and forth battles that secure a fighter’s place in UFC history.
Underdogs like Allen will fight tooth and nail for their place on the UFC roster. They often show better performances under the pressure of stepping up in competition.
UFC on ESPN 44 odds will move as fanbases for fighters like Holloway and Rafa shift the odds away from an accurate prediction of the fight and into hype territory.
