Finding the Thursday Night Football best bets this week can be tricky, but our team is here to help! We will share our analysis and expert predictions throughout the entire NFL season, including recommended TNF player props.
Check this page regularly for the latest picks, tips, and Thursday Night Football predictions. The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers get us started for Week 16 in what is a pivotal showdown in the AFC West.
TNF Best Bets This Week: Broncos vs. Chargers
Thursday Night Football Odds and Betting Lines for Week 16: Broncos vs. Chargers
Online betting sites have a variety of Thursday Night Football bets available for the Denver Broncos (9-5) vs. LA Chargers (8-6) Week 16 matchup. The main markets, including the point spread, are on the board at most major sportsbooks.
Let’s delve into the Broncos vs. Chargers lines and best Thursday Night Football bets below! The following TNF odds for Week 16 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +3 (-110) | +140 | Over 42.5 (-110) |
| LA Chargers | -3 (-110) | -165 | Under 42.5 (-110) |
The Chargers are favored to oust the Broncos by a field goal on Thursday night. As a -165 favorite on the moneyline, the Chargers have a 62.3% implied probability of beating the Broncos. If this game was on a neutral field, it would likely be a pick’em between two evenly matched squads.
The over/under suggests a low-scoring contest in the Week 16 edition of Thursday Night Football. The defenses have been solid for each side, but the offenses have had their moments in the spotlight. An argument could be made for the over and under in this one!
You can also make your Thursday Night Football picks against the spread in The Sports Geek’s inaugural NFL pick’em contest! There are still many prizes up for grabs, including $300 in Amazon gift cards each week.
If you are interested in alternative lines and unique TNF prop bets tonight, Bovada has a wide selection of options. You can find the most up-to-date TNF betting odds at Bovada by navigating to All Sports > Football > NFL > Broncos vs. Chargers.
Thursday Night Football Betting Trends
There are some key betting trends to keep in mind before placing your best Thursday Night Football bets!
I’ve dug through several trends for this matchup and have isolated the best to consider for the Broncos vs. Chargers at offshore sportsbooks:
- The Denver Broncos are 11-3-0 (ATS) against the spread in the 2024 season.
- The Denver Broncos are 5-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous five games.
- The Denver Broncos are 6-1 (ATS) against the spread in their previous six games on the road.
- The Los Angeles Chargers are 9-5 (ATS) against the spread in the 2024 season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers are 2-7 outright in their previous nine games versus teams in the AFC West.
- The OVER is 4-1 in the previous five Los Angeles Chargers’ games at home.
- The OVER is 7-3 in the previous ten Denver Broncos’ games overall.
TNF Football Prediction and Betting Pick: Broncos vs. Chargers
The AFC West is out of reach for the Broncos and Chargers. Kansas City already has the divisional title wrapped up, so all that is left to decide is playoff seeding. The Broncos are closing in on punching their ticket to the postseason following a 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15.
While the Chargers are in a position to make the playoffs, they are coming off a disappointing effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers were walloped by a score of 40-17 by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs at home. It wasn’t a performance worthy of postseason football.
DON'T MAKE A SCENE IT'S JUST DEAN 👏
📺: #TBvsLAC on FOX pic.twitter.com/9A95yo5Dyx
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 15, 2024
Herein lie the problems with the Chargers. They’ve been an inconsistent football team from week to week this season. I don’t feel confident in backing Jim Harbaugh’s squad regardless of the opponent. Nevertheless, they have made strides under the head coach, and they should take off in the coming years.
The Chargers are 21st in the NFL, averaging a mediocre 21 points per game. This equates to only 302.1 yards per game for 27th in the NFL.
The defense hasn’t done anything special either, allowing 336.7 yards per game to rank 14th. Denver should be able to run the ball to keep the Chargers’ defense off-balance for QB Bo Nix.
Nix can bolster his NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year portfolio with a strong performance. He trails QB Jayden Daniels by a considerable margin, but isn’t out of the race yet.
Nix has been incredible for the Broncos this season. The former Oregon Duck has passed for 2,972 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 63.6% completions.
93 YARDS TO THE 🏡!!!!!!!!!!@marvindmims | 📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/DbkJnOqy7j
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 3, 2024
The Broncos are in the top 10 with 24 points per game. Backed by a defense yielding just 315.3 yards per game, Nix and the offense have started with strong field position for most drives. That should be the case in this game against a Chargers’ team that likes to run the ball to set up the pass.
However, Denver should prevent this from happening. The Broncos are fifth against the run, so look for the defense to squash the Chargers in the trenches. I can’t ignore the Broncos as an underdog in a divisional matchup!
Consider backing Denver at NFL betting sites against the spread in Week 16.
Team MNF Prop Bets: Broncos vs. Chargers
Leading online bookmaker Bovada has a variety of Monday Night Football prop bets for the Broncos vs. Chargers. Let’s delve into my top team props:
Both Teams to Score 17 or More Points? Yes
- Yes (-110)
- No (-120)
I don’t foresee this being a back-and-forth shootout at SoFi Stadium. The defenses for both sides should come up with some plays. That being said, 17 points is a touch too low in my opinion.
Nix has the Denver offense firing on all cylinders heading into this matchup. They have scored 24 points per game, and have moved the ball against some pretty good defensive teams as well. The Chargers are conceding three touchdowns per game, so Nix should have some room to operate.
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert will come up with some chunk plays. The running game should stall, but Herbert likely hits a big play or two. I expect a 23-21 or 20-19 type of game, so both sides should eclipse 17 points!
Winning Margin: Broncos by 1-6 Points (+305)
MARGIN ODDS Chargers by 1-6 Points +250 Broncos by 1-6 Points +305 Chargers by 7-12 Points +385 Broncos by 7-12 Points +550 Chargers by 13-18 Points +600 Broncos by 13-18 Points +900
In a competitive AFC West showdown that is likely to go down to the wire, the best betting value has to be on the Broncos in a tight final score. It’s tough to envision either team running away in a blowout.
The Broncos have a winning margin of +6.4 points this season. They rank sixth in the NFL in this respect. Did anyone expect from Sean Payton to have the team playing this well after the disaster that happened in Russell Wilson’s final year in Denver?
Conversely, the Chargers have a margin of +3.4 for a +3 advantage for the Broncos. Both teams have played a similar schedule in the AFC West in 2024. If you like the Broncos plus the points, consider them to win by one to six points for your best TNF prop bets tonight!
Best Thursday Night Football Player Props This Week
In addition to team props, consider adding a few TNF player prop bets to your Broncos vs. Chargers card on sports betting apps! There are a few plays that have caught my attention, so let’s analyze these Thursday Night Football picks below:
Total Receptions: Quinton Johnston (LAC) Over 3.5 (-145)
- Over 3.5 (-145)
- Under 3.5 (+115)
Chargers’ WR Quinton Johnston has been a magnet for Herbert in the passing game recently. The former TCU Horned Frog has been targeted 17 times over the last two weeks. He hauled in 10 receptions, with five catches in each performance.
QJ ➡️ TD
📺: #TBvsLAC on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/2yytkK6aSI— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Over the last five weeks, Johnston has received 34 targets from Herbert in the passing game. Overall, he has recorded 34 receptions, 459 yards, and eight touchdowns in his second season in the NFL. The Broncos will put up a wall against the Chargers’ ground game, so expect Herbert to take to the air.
Johnston over 3.5 receptions is one of the best Thursday Night Football player props on the board this week!
Total Rushing Yards: Gus Edwards (LAC) Under 37.5 (-115)
- Over 37.5 (-115)
- Under 37.5 (-115)
RB Gus Edwards will look to put the Chargers on track on the ground in this matchup. However, my confidence levels aren’t enthusiastic about Edwards having a productive showing on Thursday night.
The former Baltimore Raven enters this week with 297 yards and two touchdowns on 3.4 yards per carry. He has been a disappointing acquisition for the Chargers this season.
Edwards has averaged just 25.8 yards per game over the last five games. He hasn’t gone over 37 yards rushing in six matchups. That’s only once in eight outings for Edwards!
Against a tough Denver front, there is value on Edwards under 37.5 yards on the ground for your best TNF prop bets this week!
Total Kicking Points: Will Lutz (DEN) Over 7.5 (-135)
- Over 7.5 (-135)
- Under 7.5 (+105)
The Broncos are 11th in the NFL with 1.9 field goals per game. Kicker Will Lutz has connected on 27 of 30 field goals for a sharp success rate of 90%.
He has a long of 54 yards and is good on 4-of-6 of 50+ field goals to show off his long-distance ability. Lutz was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week late last month after going 5-of-5 on field goals.
5-for-5 and a career-high 17 points. 👏
RT to congratulate @wil_lutz5 on being named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week‼️
📰 » https://t.co/tm8QFzP37L pic.twitter.com/xDaR70r5yJ
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 27, 2024
Lutz should be good for two field goals in this matchup against the Chargers. Note that the Chargers are 23rd in the league, yielding 2.4 field goals to opponents per game. In addition to the field goals, Lutz should kick two or three extra points to bring his total points scored to eight or nine points.
For your Thursday Night Football player props, consider this kicking bet for your card tonight!
Thursday Night Football Parlay for Week 16
To finish your best TNF bets this week, consider a parlay bet offering a big payout! From the available wagers at Bovada for Thursday Night Football, the prop bets are worth putting together on one ticket.
In short, Lutz over 7.5 kicking points, Edwards under 37.5 rushing yards, and Johnston over 3.5 receptions is in my parlay. On a $100 wager, bettors can win $450 at +450 odds on this TNF parlay wager if all three legs are successful!
- Johnston: Over 3.5 Receptions
- Edwards: Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
- Lutz: Over 7.5 Kicking Points
Thursday Night Football Betting Summary: Broncos vs. Chargers
The Sports Geek is excited to open the Week 16 card with our best Thursday Night Football bets for the Broncos vs. Chargers! While we can’t promise that you’ll become as wealthy as the richest NFL owners, there is big cash to be won this season on the gridiron.
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