Best NRFI Bets Today – No Runs First Inning Picks UPDATED DAILY

The Mets and Marlins meet in the second of three matchups at LoanDepot Park tonight. The visiting Mets made the Marlins pay for shaky pitching with a 10-4 win yesterday.

I anticipate a stronger performance for the Marlins on the bump with Sandy Alcántara receiving the starting call. Alcántara is looking to get back to strong form after his 2024 season was wiped out due to Tommy John surgery.

In 2022, the 29-year-old Dominican native posted a career-high 2.28 and 0.98 WHIP en route to the NL Cy Young. Can he get back to that place? While another Cy Young is unlikely, Alcántara is more than capable of being a stellar pitcher.

He yielded two hits and two runs through 4.2 innings in a solid outing versus the Pirates. Also, note that Alcántara has good results against the Mets in his career. The Mets are hitting .220 against Alcántara in 159 at-bats. On the opposite side, the Mets send Kodai Senga to the bump for this start.

Kodai Senga, Wicked 83mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/pNwz19UMrA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 3, 2025

Senga is another pitcher whose 2024 regular season campaign was lost. He made just one appearance in the regular season before returning for the postseason.

In his rookie year, Senga recorded an ERA of 2.98 and a 1.22 WHIP. He appeared to be back to form in spring training, as Senga posted an ERA of 2.00 and a 1.22 WHIP through nine frames.

This looks like a spot for your best NRFI picks today!

The Twins and White Sox clash again in this AL Central showdown at Rate Field. The White Sox blasted the Twins for a 9-0 win in yesterday’s matchup! Minnesota is off to a rocky start with a record of 0-4 heading into Tuesday.

Simeon Woods Richardson has been assigned the start for the Twins in this one. The pitcher was solid in his first year in the Major Leagues. He posted an ERA of 4.17 and a 1.29 WHIP through 28 starts.

It was an impressive start to his Major League career, and the Twins are optimistic that the best is yet to come for the 24-year-old from Sugar Land, TX. He was fine in spring training, with a 4.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The White Sox are expected to counter with Shane Smith on Tuesday.

White Sox prospect Shane Smith strikes out Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith in the 1st inning 👀 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/29Njblc1hC

— MLB (@MLB) March 8, 2025

Smith made the rotation after solid results in the minors last year and this past spring training. He notched a 3.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 32 appearances in Double-A and Triple-A. As well, Smith was in top form, with a 3.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in spring training. He appears well-prepared for his Major League debut!

For your NRFI best bets today, the Twins vs. White Sox is a top option to consider!

The Tigers aim to make it back-to-back wins after a 9-6 victory over the Mariners last night! They were quick to respond after getting swept at Dodger Stadium. The bats came out to play in a big statement win against Seattle.

Casey Mize is scheduled to make his first start of the 2025 campaign. The first overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft has dealt with injuries and reliability concerns, but the talent is there. Is this finally the year Mize can put everything together and put injuries behind him?

Mize has looked flawless in spring training and the pitcher we thought he’d be when he was drafted No. 1. He’s still only 27 years old, so there is time for him to get things in order. The Springville, AL, native posted an ERA of 1.89 and a 1.00 WHIP in spring training.

The Mariners have assigned this start to Logan Gilbert. Gilbert was rock solid in his first start this season. He finished with two hits and one earned run against the Athletics. Last year, Gilbert recorded a 3.23 ERA as the ace of the Mariners!

Logan Gilbert, Filthy 3 Pitch K. 😷 pic.twitter.com/Jk0mfdQQm3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2025

He’s notched a 3.73 ERA or better in three consecutive years, and it appears that Gilbert could take another leap. In other words, consider the Tigers vs. Mariners for your NRFI picks today!

1. Check The Starting Lineups, Especially The Pitchers

You should always begin with the lineups. Check who the starting pitchers are and then go through the latest injuries and suspensions to see whether any of the teams will be missing key pieces.

We usually go to the CBS’ MLB injury report to see who’s out and who’s doubtful. They pull the data directly from league reports, so it’s trustworthy information.

2. Analyzing NRFI Stats

Once we know the most likely lineups, it’s time for a key step of our NRFI betting strategy: analyzing numbers. You need to go through various data points to determine how likely is for the opening inning of a game to end without any runs.

We explore the individual stats of the starting pitchers, we analyze the offensive numbers of both sides, and we also take a look at the total team stats for first inning runs.

Once we have a complete overview of what’s going on, we create our own estimates (in percentages) of how likely it is to see no runs in the first inning.

After that, it’s time to check the odds!

3. Line Shopping

It’s time to check some betting odds! We use two bookmakers that offer daily NRFI betting odds for the MLB: Bovada and BetWhale. We check their prices for all games and turn them into probabilities.

We compare them to our own estimates and when we see good betting value, we place our NRFI wagers!

We strongly recommend using multiple top betting sites yourself for the best results. The two we highlighted above are all excellent for no runs first inning bets.