Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them.
Best Home Run Bets Today, September 7
| HOME RUN BETS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (+350) – Milwaukee Brewers | Bovada |
| Willy Adames (+350) – Milwaukee Brewers | Betwhale |
| Edouard Julien (+1300) – Minnesota Twins | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for September 7 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for September 7:
Rhys Hoskins (+350) – Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ Rhys Hoskins looks to put a huge dent into the Rockies at American Family Field. It was a slow day on Friday, as the Rockies leaned on the hot arm of Ryan Feltner to hold the Brew Crew to two runs in a 3-2 final.
A GAME-CHANGING NUKE @rhyshoskins https://t.co/kmgphNuFMP pic.twitter.com/GUoCmRky77
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 11, 2024
On Saturday, the Brewers’ bats should wake up against Ty Blach and the Rockies. The pitcher enters with a 6.65 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through 19 matchups. He has struggled to limit the home run ball recently.
The 33-year-old of Denver has allowed four home runs in his previous three starts. Blach holds an insane 15.12 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over these trio of performances. I don’t anticipate this assignment will go much better against Rhys Hoskins.
Hoskins has had success, pummeling Blach for a .400 average and home run in five at-bats! Currently, he ranks second on the Brewers with 23 dingers on the season.
With Blach on the bump, Hoskins is a name to consider for your best home run bets today!
Willy Adames (+350) – Milwaukee Brewers
Along with Hoskins, I have high expectations for the Brewers’ Willy Adames at the dish. The guy enters leading the Brewers in home runs with 29!
He most recently went deep on September 2. That was the final long ball of a torrid pace for Adames. In addition to that bomb, he hit five consecutive homers from August 30 to September 2.
Adames was on an incredible hot run, and I’m confident that he can get back on the board today. Given Blach’s issues recently, Adames is one of the most likely hitters to take advantage.
Note that he has gone yard 17 times at home as opposed to 12 on the road. He likes hitting at American Family Field, and is in a great position in this matchup. With this in mind, consider including Adames for your best home run bets today!
Edouard Julien (+1300) – Minnesota Twins
One of the top value plays on the board to connect for a home run is on Eduardo Julien. The 25-year-old native of Quebec heads into Saturday with a .217 average and eight home runs in 83 games this season.
Eddy was ready! pic.twitter.com/bIUnR32ywC
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 5, 2024
One of his eight long balls came recently on September 5 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Although Julien’s eight home runs don’t appear impressive, keep in mind that the youngster has only played in 83 ball games.
And, this is a terrific matchup for Julien versus Alec Marsh. In four at-bats, Julien has notched three hits and a home run! Also, Marsh hasn’t been in the best form, with a 4.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 22 games.
Marsh has yielded eight home runs over his previous seven games, including two in his latest showing against the Astros. At +1300, Julien’s MLB home run odds are too juicy to pass on, so I suggest adding him to your card!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
