Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them, and feel free to use the recommended wagers here for our free World Series betting contest.
Best Home Run Bets Today, October 30
| HOME RUN BETS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|
| Anthony Rizzo (+900) – NY Yankees | Bovada |
| Freddie Freeman (+500) – LA Dodgers | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for October 30 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for October 30:
Anthony Rizzo (+900) – New York Yankees
The Yankees need another top-end performance from the bats to bring this series back to Los Angeles for Game 6. They could get it from an unlikely source in Anthony Rizzo.
Anthony Rizzo powers out his 300th career home run! pic.twitter.com/JId5WDD5yi
— MLB (@MLB) April 28, 2024
If you look at the numbers of Rizzo against Gerrit Cole, it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise if he goes deep, though! Rizzo is hitting .435 with three home runs and six RBIs in 23 at-bats against Cole.
You would think the big bats on the Yankees have had the most success against the pitcher, but that is not the case here. Rizzo has gotten a hold of Cole several times in the past.
Despite not hitting a home run in the World Series yet, Rizzo is a strong candidate considering his favorable history versus Cole. The odds are most certainly worth a look at +900!
This is the largest bet on the board, so consider locking Rizzo in for your best home run bets today.
Freddie Freeman (+500) – Los Angeles Dodgers
Freddie Freeman can’t stop hitting home runs! After not hitting a home run since September 16, the member of Team Canada has belted home runs in five consecutive games.
He is the overwhelming favorite to win the World Series MVP award as a result of his torrid pace. Dating back to his last appearance in the World Series, Freeman has hit one in six straight games!
FREDDIE FREEMAN CAN'T STOP! #WORLDSERIES pic.twitter.com/OU91JMycyx
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 30, 2024
So, can Freeman do it again and notch a long ball in six straight games? With a solid matchup against Gerrit Cole, it’s reasonable to assume that Freeman can pull off the improbable. He is hitting .348 with a home run versus Cole in 23 at-bats.
While this feat seems incredibly tough, Freeman is smashing everything he sees at the plate. Cole hasn’t exactly had the best answer for him in previous matchups, either.
With this in mind, Freeman carries solid value for your MLB home run bets at +500!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
