Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Bets Today, March 29
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +350 | Bovada |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | +350 | Bovada |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +350 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for March 29 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for March 29:
Bryce Harper (+350) – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies remain at Nationals Park where they have a Saturday afternoon matchup versus the Washington Nationals. They are off to a quality start following a 7-3 win on Opening Day.
The offense, as expected, was on point in their first assignment this season. That includes Bryce Harper, who went deep on Thursday. Harper finished the contest with two runs and an RBI on his solo shot over the fence.
Bryce. Harper. Delivers. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GyjzOT3vAh
— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2025
I foresee Harper having a potent season once again this year, so a hot start in March and April isn’t out of the question. Last season, Harper hit 30 home runs in 145 games.
He was well off the pace of the career-high 42 long balls he smacked in 2015, but it was the first time he eclipsed 30 since the 2021 campaign. Harper and the Phillies take on Jake Irvin, who had mediocre results in his first two years in the Major Leagues.
Irvin posted an ERA of 4.41 with 29 home runs surrendered in 33 appearances in 2024. Harper has a solid chance of staying in form and delivering another long shot on Saturday! With this in mind, consider adding Harper to your MLB home run prop bets today.
Jake Burger (+350) – Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers added Jake Burger in the offseason to give the offense some more pop! He was one of the most underrated power hitters a season ago but didn’t get much attention in Miami.
Burger concluded the year with 29 home runs and 76 RBIs through 137 games. He likely touches over 35 home runs given a full schedule. In 2023, Burger notched 34 home runs in 141 matchups between the White Sox and Marlins. He had a productive spring training with three long bombs in 22 games!
Jake Burger's four-month-old daughter Penelope had successful open-heart surgery on Monday.
Today, Jake hit his first @Rangers home run … wearing Penelope's hospital band. 💙 pic.twitter.com/Q5mmU3yNMp
— MLB (@MLB) February 28, 2025
The 28-year-old Missouri native should have the upper hand over Red Sox starter Walker Buehler. The longtime LA Dodger is looking to reignite his career in Boston with the Red Sox. He’s been trending downward over the last two years.
Buehler posted a 4.02 and 5.38 ERA in 2023 and 2024. He dealt with injuries during that stretch, and the velocity never quite returned for Buehler on the mound. The former standout hurler was tagged for 16 home runs in 16 games a season ago.
I think at +350, there is value here for your MLB home run best bets today!
Christian Walker (+350) – Houston Astros
Another home run bet to look into today is on Astros’ newcomer Christian Walker. The former Arizona Diamondback has a powerful bat that is capable of striking at any moment. Walker is on the heels of a 26-home run effort with the D-backs in 2024.
He only played in 130 games, so again, he would have been well above the 30-home run mark with a healthier season. In 2023, Walker recorded 36 long balls in 157 games. I expect him to get on the back with a deep ball against the Mets on Saturday. Despite no hits yet this season, five were recorded at 100+ mph off his bat, so the power is definitely there!
Walker goes oppo. 👀 pic.twitter.com/bbT8HENKCG
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 18, 2024
The Mets hand the ball to Griffin Canning for today’s start. The former Angel is with a new team for the first time in his seven-year MLB career. In 2024, Canning struggled with 31 home runs allowed in 31 starts.
A season earlier, Canning gave up 22 home runs in 22 starts, so this has been a recurring problem for him. Walker has demolished Griffin in past games. In eight at-bats, Walker has hit .500 with two home runs versus the Mets’ starter!
So, I suggest Walker at +350 for your MLB HR picks today!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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