Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees - July 4, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I can’t help but dive into the numbers for this upcoming Reds versus Yankees game. On paper, it looks like a matchup where both teams have their strengths and weaknesses.

The Yankees, with their powerful batting lineup averaging 5.1 runs per game, seem to have the edge when it comes to offensive production compared to the Reds’ average of 4.3 runs per game. However, the Reds have been surprisingly efficient lately, winning five out of their last six games and holding opponents to fewer runs.

When we look at the pitching duel, Stroman of the Yankees has a slightly better ERA than Montas of the Reds (3.6 vs. 4.2). Both pitchers have similar strikeout rates around 8.4 strikeouts per game, indicating that they can be effective in keeping batters at bay.

Despite the recent struggles of the Yankees, losing seven out of their last nine games and not performing well against the spread or in terms of total games going over, they still remain a formidable opponent with a solid record of 54-34 for the season.

On the other hand, the Reds have shown resilience and an ability to capitalize on opportunities in close games, as seen in their previous victory against the Yankees with a scoreline of 3-2.

Taking all these factors into consideration along with my analysis of their recent performance trends and statistical averages, I predict that this game will be closely contested but ultimately end in favor of the Cincinnati Reds. The under seems like a safe bet given both teams’ pitching strength and recent tendencies towards lower-scoring games.

So there you have it – my data-driven prediction for this exciting interleague matchup between two competitive teams vying for a crucial victory at Yankee Stadium. Let’s see how it all plays out on Thursday night!