Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners - August 2, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I find myself intrigued by the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners this Friday at T-Mobile Park. Both teams are looking to turn their recent fortunes around, but the numbers suggest that the Phillies may have the edge in this contest.

Let’s start with the pitching. The Phillies will be sending Tyler Phillips to the mound, who boasts an impressive 3-0 record along with a solid 3.6 ERA and nearly 9 strikeouts per game. His ability to miss bats could be crucial against a Mariners lineup that has struggled offensively this season. On the other hand, Bryan Woo will take his turn for Seattle with a respectable 4-1 record and a slightly higher ERA of 3.6 alongside just over 8 strikeouts per game. While both pitchers have shown promise, Phillips’s current form suggests he might be able to keep runs off the board more effectively than Woo.

Now let’s delve into team performance metrics. The Phillies have been scoring an average of approximately 4.9 runs per game and racking up about 8.7 hits, which indicates they’re generating offensive opportunities consistently. Their batting average sits at .251, significantly better than Seattle’s .214 average—an alarming stat for any offense trying to compete at this level.

The Mariners’ offensive stats reveal they’re averaging around 3.9 runs per game with about 7.2 hits—a stark contrast to what Philadelphia brings to the table in terms of run production and overall hitting efficiency (as evidenced by their on-base slugging percentage of roughly 73% compared to Seattle’s near 66%). This disparity is particularly telling when you consider how difficult it can be for teams that struggle offensively against quality pitching.

Interestingly enough, both teams are currently struggling; Philadelphia has lost four straight games while Seattle recently dropped one against Boston in a close contest that saw them score only two runs—further highlighting their offensive woes lately.

When we look at betting trends, it’s worth noting that Philadelphia has gone just 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games and also holds an identical record for straight-up wins during that span. Meanwhile, Seattle has fared somewhat better recently with a record of 4-2 SU over their last six contests.

Given all these factors—the superior hitting stats from Philadelphia combined with Tyler Phillips’s strong performance on the mound—I predict that tonight’s matchup will see the Phillies emerge victorious over the Mariners. Additionally, considering both teams’ recent struggles to put up big numbers offensively and Phillips’s ability to limit scoring opportunities for opponents, I would lean toward taking the under on tonight’s total set at eight runs.

In summary: expect a competitive game where Philadelphia’s offense finally breaks through against Seattle’s inconsistent attack while Tyler Phillips continues his unbeaten streak on the mound.