Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - August 7, 2024

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen the ebbs and flows of baseball betting like few others. Tonight’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium is one that has me licking my chops. The odds opened with the Dodgers as -143 favorites, but after seeing how these teams have played recently, I’m feeling a bit different about this one.

Let’s break down what we have here: Tyler Phillips takes the mound for the Phillies with a 3-1 record and a 3.7 ERA—solid numbers for a guy who isn’t exactly an ace, but he’s been effective nonetheless. His strikeout rate sits just below nine per game, which suggests he can fan some batters when it matters.

On the other side, you’ve got Gavin Stone for the Dodgers sporting a 9-5 record but with an ERA creeping up to around 3.8. Sure, that sounds decent on paper, but he hasn’t been as sharp lately as his earlier season numbers might suggest. He also strikes out fewer batters than Phillips per game—8.6 compared to Phillips’ nearly nine—and that might be something to keep in mind when considering how these guys will fare under pressure.

The last time these two faced off? A stunning 6-2 victory for the Phillies. That kind of performance often leaves bettors wondering if it was more about Philadelphia’s skill or L.A.’s missteps. But let’s not ignore recent trends either; while Philly has struggled lately (going just 2-7 in their last nine), they’ve managed to score runs effectively—averaging almost five per game and hitting .251 as a team.

Conversely, while the Dodgers are historically strong at home—with a solid 7-2 record in their last nine games—they seem to be faltering at key moments lately with only two wins against the spread in their past seven games. Their batting average hovers around .246; that’s not going to win many close contests against competent pitchers like Phillips.

Now let’s talk totals—the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs tonight. Given both teams’ recent run-scoring capabilities mixed with solid pitching performances expected from both starters, I see this game trending toward being lower scoring than oddsmakers might anticipate.

I’m predicting that Philadelphia pulls off another upset here tonight and takes down L.A., pushing their momentum forward after that previous win against them. And given Phillips’ ability to get strikeouts alongside Stone’s inconsistency on the mound lately, I would lean towards betting on the UNDER here too—perhaps even parlaying both bets for some better value!

In baseball betting, momentum is everything; so if you’ve got your lucky socks ready or your favorite cap perched just right—go ahead and don’t hesitate! Let’s roll with those Phillies tonight!