Best College Football Props Today: Expert NCAAF Predictions

Total Passing Yards: Aidan Chiles (MSU) Over 224.5 (-113)

There are a few NCAA football games to delve into for your college football prop bets tonight! In the most prominent matchup on Friday, the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans clash in East Lansing at Spartan Stadium.

The Spartans must win their final two games against Purdue and Rutgers. They are a 13.5-point favorite tonight, and Rutgers is a winnable game, so Michigan State has a chance. QB Aidan Chiles has a favorable matchup throwing the ball against the Boilermakers. Purdue doesn’t have a Big Ten defense we are accustomed to seeing.

They are getting railed for 43.2 points allowed per game — the second-worst mark in the FBS! Only the Kent State Golden Flashes concede more points than Purdue this season. A large part of their problems is a result of a mediocre secondary.

Purdue has yielded 273.4 yards through the air per game for 121st in the country. While Chiles isn’t a gunslinger, he can easily eclipse 225 yards tonight. The QB enters with 2,106 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 61% completions.

AIDAN TO AZ FOR SIX 🙌@ai6an_ x @AziahJohnson_1 pic.twitter.com/LtrgRvX0r0

— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) November 16, 2024

He has spun 256 yards in two of his last four starts against Iowa and Illinois. Both units are considerably better against the pass than the Boilermakers, so Chiles should be able to open up the vertical game.

With this in mind, Chiles over 224.5 passing yards is a strong option for your NCAA football prop bets!

Total Receiving Yards: Nick Nash (SJSU) Over 105.5 (-115)

San Jose State Spartans’ WR Nick Nash is having himself quite a year in 2024. He is one of the best receivers in college football that you may not know about. The talented senior has recorded 1,282 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 95 receptions heading into Friday night against UNLV.

NICK NASH ARE YOU KIDDING?! @SanJoseStateFB

📺 CBS Sports Network pic.twitter.com/qzvGruUe2q

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 17, 2024

Trying to keep up with Nash has been a major task for opposing defenses. They haven’t had the best success, and I don’t see UNLV having the horses to stop Nash. UNLV is 115th in the FBS, with 264.3 passing yards allowed per game. Walker Eget should be able to connect with Nash early and often at home.

Note that Nash has averaged 143.5 receiving yards over the last two weeks! He hauled in 161 yards against Oregon State and then followed up with 126 yards against Boise State this past weekend.

If they couldn’t contain Nash, it’s highly unlikely that UNLV can deter him from having another big performance. I suggest adding Nash to your college football prop bets card for Friday night.

1. Evaluate Roster Turnover and Returning/Departing Players

While this is a must for placing your college football picks on traditional markets like the point spread, it’s also important to examine roster turnover for prop betting.

Let’s assume an experienced defense from the 2023-24 season has several new faces in the secondary for this year. Especially through the first month, we can assume that there will be an adjustment period for the defense.

As a result, quarterbacks and wide receivers typically have a high likelihood of feasting on these units. Of course, this can be applied to a variety of situations and examples.

For instance, if you are considering backing a running back’s rushing prop bet, I would advise investigating the experience on the offensive line before betting. Additionally, the defensive line and linebackers of the opposing defense are worth your time.

Teams can look much different than the previous season in college football because of graduations and the transfer portal, so it’s invaluable information to have for your NCAA football player props today!

2. Know the Team’s Offensive Philosophy and System

College football is unique due to the variety of different offensive systems that teams utilize. From conference to conference and team to team, coaches have implemented their system to best suit their personnel.

Some of these offensive strategies include the pro-style offense, pistol offense, air-raid offense, run-and-shoot offense, spread offense, option offense, and more.

The system will have a direct correlation to offensive output. An air-raid offense is going to put up far more yardage through the air than a pro-style system, for instance.

Understanding the offensive objective of the players you are backing for your NCAA football player props is vital for being profitable.

3. Analyze Each Individual Matchup for Strengths and Weaknesses

You can’t make your best college football prop bets without breaking down each individual matchup! It would be a losing proposition to not take into consideration the strengths and weaknesses of each squad.

This also ties into analyzing team and NCAA statistics to help you ascertain which teams are excelling and struggling in certain areas. I have come to discover that teams rarely fix trouble spots with their roster in the same season.

When a team is bad against the run, pass, and so on, it typically takes an offseason or two to address these needs. Things that are working and failing tend to continue through the season.

In short, I recommend identifying early trends and noting them for your wagers in the future.

Carson Beck Passing Yards Prop:

• BetUS: Over 280.5 (-120), Under 280.5 (-110)
• Bovada: Over 278.5 (-115), Under 278.5 (-115)

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetUS
• BetOnline