Aston Villa @ Leicester City - August 31, 2024

As we gear up for the Premier League clash between Leicester City and Aston Villa this Saturday, there’s plenty to unpack based on the teams’ recent performances, statistics, and head-to-head history.

Leicester finds themselves in a tricky spot, with a record of 0-1-1, signaling a rocky start to the season. They’ve scored just a single goal across their two matches—and while their offensive output can be attributed in part to their struggle, it’s important to note that they’ve been averaging 8.5 shots per game but converting only 11.8% of those opportunities into goals. Additionally, their average of 3.5 shots on target indicates a lack of effectiveness in getting quality chances off against opponents.

On the defensive side, Leicester has committed 12 fouls per game, averaging nearly 6 fouls without the ball, which may suggest a tendency to disrupt the rhythm of their opposition. While maintaining a decent passing accuracy of 78.95%, this may not be high enough to craft meaningful opportunities that can lead to goals against a sharp opponent like Aston Villa.

Now, let’s shift our focus to Aston Villa, who own a slightly better record of 1-0-1. They have found the back of the net once as well, but their approach to attacking seems more aggressive, averaging 13 shots per game, showing a greater willingness to test the opposition’s goalkeeper. Aston Villa’s conversion rate hovers around 7.7%—the same percentage as Leicester—indicating that both teams are struggling in turning their shots into goals, albeit with varying levels of output.

Villa’s passing accuracy sits marginally higher at 80.3%, which allows them to maintain better possession and create attacking opportunities. It’s also noteworthy that they commit fewer fouls (9.5 on average), which suggests a more disciplined defensive setup that could help absorb any pressure from Leicester’s offense.

Given these statistics, it’s reasonable to expect Aston Villa to have the edge in this matchup. Their superior shot count and marginally better passing accuracy suggest a higher likelihood of creating goal-scoring opportunities. Although the match is being contested on Leicester’s turf, a crucial advantage for Villa could be their established ability to apply pressure consistently, which could lead to potential defensive breakdowns within Leicester’s ranks.

The opening odds reflect the anticipation around the match, with Aston Villa set as favorites at -133 while Leicester opens at +333. A draw, sitting at +280, appears less likely given the trends and the overall form of both teams.

With these offensive and defensive trends considered, I predict Aston Villa to secure a win, possibly with a score line that reflects multiple goals. It’s worth noting that both teams show signs of offensive struggles in conversion rates, which leads me to believe the over/under for this game, likely favoring a higher total, could skew towards the over based on the number of shots expected from both sides.

In conclusion, anticipate a solid performance from Aston Villa, capitalizing on their offensive strengths, and pushing past Leicester to take away all three points. The over on the total looks to have a solid chance of hitting given both teams’ shooting tendencies.