St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - September 3, 2024

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve learned that when the Cardinals and Brewers face off, it’s more than just a game; it’s a battle for divisional pride. This Tuesday night at American Family Field promises to deliver some fireworks, although not in the way you might expect.

Let’s start with the pitching matchup. The Cardinals are sending Steven Matz out there, who has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and a 4.22 ERA. His strikeout numbers aren’t terrible—hovering around 7.9—but consistency has been his kryptonite this year. The last outing against Milwaukee? A dismal performance that saw him get lit up like a Christmas tree.

On the other side of the diamond is Aaron Civale for the Brewers, boasting a more respectable 5-8 win-loss record and an ERA of 3.7. Now, while those numbers don’t scream dominance, he’s had better outings lately, especially at home where he thrives under pressure (the Brew Crew is currently on an impressive run at home). It’s hard to ignore that he can rack up strikeouts too—averaging over 8 per game—which could be crucial tonight against a Cardinal lineup that’s been inconsistent.

Now let’s talk bats: The Brewers have been producing runs consistently with an average of nearly 4.9 per game and hitting .246 as a team—nothing eye-popping but enough to get by when paired with solid pitching. The Cardinals trail slightly behind with only about 4.1 runs per game and just as many hits per contest but haven’t shown much life recently either.

Looking back at their recent encounters—the last time these two met ended in a 9-3 victory for Milwaukee—is fresh in my mind and makes me cautious about backing St. Louis tonight. They seem to have hit a rough patch where even odds don’t favor them against teams like Milwaukee who are firing on all cylinders right now.

The oddsmakers opened the Cardinals as -109 favorites which feels like they underestimated how much momentum Milwaukee carries into this game after their recent success—not just against St. Louis but overall lately (6-1 in their last seven games!).

So here’s what I’m looking at: Every betting instinct tells me this is Milwaukee’s night to shine again against their division rivals, especially given how comfortable they are playing at home (8-1 in their last nine games). Casting my bets aside for luck—because we all know superstitions play into our decisions—I believe it would be wise to put your money on the Brewers winning this one outright.

As for total runs? I’m leaning towards taking “under” on the expected total of 7.5 runs tonight despite both teams having shown tendencies to go OVER recently; I see Civale keeping things steady while Matz may just give up enough runs to keep it close but not explosive.

In conclusion: My bet’s firmly placed on the Brewers emerging victorious while keeping things under that total line! Let’s hope my lucky socks work their magic tonight!