Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - September 15, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I’ve always believed that numbers tell a compelling story—particularly in the NFL where trends can reveal hidden insights we might not immediately perceive on the surface. This Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals are set to renew their fierce rivalry at State Farm Stadium, and the data suggests some intriguing predictions for the matchup.

The Rams enter the game with a chip on their shoulder after an uninspiring loss to the Lions, where they fell short 26-20. Their offensive output hasn’t been great; they averaged only 20 points in the previous game. However, the Rams have shown a propensity to score through the air, averaging 317 passing yards with an impressive completion percentage of 69.4%. But let’s not overlook their struggling ground game, which averaged just 83 yards on the ground at 6.5 yards per carry last week.

In contrast, the Cardinals are coming off a narrow defeat against the Bills, where they put up a decent fight, scoring 28 points. Their offensive stats reflect a better ground game, racking up an average of 124 rushing yards at 5.2 yards per attempt. Quarterback performance has been key for Arizona with a 67.7% completion percentage, but their passing game could face challenges against a Rams defense that will be looking to bounce back after giving up points.

Historically, the Rams have advanced well in divisional matchups, boasting a 7-3 straight-up record over their last 10 games. They also bring a solid record of 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games. This gives them the edge not just in familiarity with their opponent but also in the confidence of their recent performances against similar opponents.

On the other hand, the Cardinals do present some benchmarks of concern; they’ve managed to cover the spread just 4 times in their last 25 games. Although they’ve shown capability in covering spreads among the underdogs (1-0 ATS this year), their overall performance suggests that consistency is not their strong suit.

For those considering the Over/Under—currently set at 48—the trends suggest a shift towards the under in this matchup. The Rams have gone under in 6 of their last 9 contests, while the Cardinals have a tendency for higher totals. However, given the offensive inconsistencies shown by the Rams and the Cardinals’ defense, which can bend and not break, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the total fall short of expectations.

My prediction for this game is that the Rams will emerge victorious over the Cardinals, successfully covering the spread. A score of approximately 24-21 could be within reach, which leans toward the under based on both teams’ statistical outputs. With these insights, it will be fascinating to see if the numbers align with reality on game day!