Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans - September 15, 2024

As I get ready for Sunday’s matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, the excitement is palpable—even though predictions are a bit murky. On one side, we have a Texans team that managed to edge out the Colts in their last game with a close score of 29-27. They demonstrated an impressive offensive flair, managing to rack up an average of 29 points, and I can’t help but think that they might be riding that momentum into this next game.

However, what stands out to me is their struggle to cover the spread as favorites last week. Despite their victory, they fell short against the spread, and they’ll likely feel the pressure to rectify that in front of their home crowd. They come in with a 1-0 record both straight-up and against the spread this season, but their historical performance at home has been shaky, particularly as they have lost 16 of their last 25 matchups at NRG Stadium.

On the flip side, the Bears came away with a solid 24-17 victory against the Titans. They looked better than their recent track record of 8-17 in the last 25 games. Chicago has certainly been a better team against the spread lately, covering in 6 of their last 8 games. I can certainly see how they managed to keep things competitive and somehow cover the spread considering their week’s performance.

When we look at the stats, the Texans are outpacing the Bears in virtually every offensive measure. Houston boasts an average of 234 passing yards with a staggering 75% completion rate, compared to Chicago’s meager passing stats—averaging only 93 yards and a completion rate just above 48%. The Texans also enjoy a productive run game, averaging 213 rushing yards and gaining a notable 7.31 yards per attempt. The Bears don’t match up in the same breath, with averages of 84 rushing yards and a mere 3.21 yards per attempt.

This offensive gap can make the difference in a game, especially when Houston is playing at home. However, I believe the Bears will manage to keep it competitive and cover the spread, as they have shown resilience in tight matchups just like last week.

Looking at the total points, it’s where things get tricky. I expect a lower-scoring affair here, likely under the 46.5 point mark. While the Texans have shown they can put up points, Chicago’s inability to move the ball effectively means they may struggle to keep pace. If the Bears can harness a solid defensive effort while getting enough plays to keep it close, we could see a game that stays under, reflective of the Bears’ low-scoring history.

All things considered, I’m predicting a tight game with the Texans receiving the win, but don’t count out the Bears to cover the spread while the match trends towards the under. Let’s see if my instincts hold up when the whistle blows!