Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts - September 22, 2024

As Sunday approaches, the excitement surrounding the matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium is palpable. It’s a clash of two teams looking to find their footing—Chicago with a record of 1-1 and Indianapolis seeking its first victory of the season at 0-2. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board consistently, making this contest particularly intriguing.

The oddsmakers have given the Colts a slight edge as -1-point favorites, which tells me they’re expecting a close game. The total points are set at 46.5, but historical trends hint that this one could be lower-scoring, especially given the Bears’ recent performances.

Looking at Chicago’s stats, they’ve averaged 18.5 points per game, which is a modest figure. Their passing game has been underwhelming, with only 133.5 yards through the air and a completion percentage hovering around 55.2%. This doesn’t instill confidence, especially against a Colts team that, despite its struggles, can still make plays defensively. Chicago’s rushing attack has been less impressive, averaging 77.5 yards per game at just under four yards a carry. The inability to effectively run the ball leads me to believe they’ll struggle to sustain drives, which puts added pressure on their defense.

On the other side, we have the Colts, who are averaging 18.5 points per game as well, but with a slightly more potent offensive output. They average 208 passing yards, albeit with a lower completion percentage of around 48.7%. Their rushing attack has been a bright spot, totaling 122 yards per game with an impressive average of 8.6 yards per attempt. If the Colts can continue to exploit their ground game, it might tilt the balance in their favor.

Defensively, both teams have their gaps. The Colts have a dismal 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games, and while that is concerning, I believe they will be able to rally against a Bears team that has been far from dominant in the past few weeks. Additionally, the Bears have shown resilience, going 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games, but consistency remains an issue.

Given all of this, I predict that the Colts will emerge victorious on Sunday. The struggle for either team to eclipse the 20-point mark in this matchup leaves me inclined to think the game will end up being lower-scoring than the total points suggest. The game will likely see a final score in the range we’d expect from both sides: certainly within that 46.5 total line and more likely landing under.

In conclusion, I see the Colts securing the win while also covering the spread, but I won’t be shocked if this game turns into a nail-biter that keeps both neck and neck for most of the afternoon. Trust in the Colts this week, but don’t expect a barnburner—this one is set to be a hard-fought battle in the trenches, likely ending under.