New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves - September 24, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I find the upcoming matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves at Truist Park to be particularly intriguing. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, and with their respective records of 87-69 for the Mets and 85-71 for the Braves, every game counts.

Starting on the mound for the Mets is Luis Severino. He boasts an 11-6 record this season with a 4.0 ERA. While those numbers may suggest he’s had a solid year, his ERA indicates he has been prone to giving up runs in key moments. His strikeout rate sits around 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, which is decent but not elite. This could prove crucial against a Braves lineup that can capitalize on mistakes.

On the other side, we have Spencer Schwellenbach taking the hill for Atlanta with a slightly better ERA of 3.6 and an equal win-loss record of 7-7. His ability to keep batters off balance is reflected in his impressive strikeout rate of approximately 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings—a significant advantage when facing a potent offense like New York’s.

When we look at batting statistics, both teams have shown they can score runs efficiently throughout the season; however, there are nuances worth noting. The Mets average about 4.8 runs per game compared to Atlanta’s 4.4 runs per game—this gives New York an edge offensively based on sheer output.

However, it’s essential to consider that while New York averages more runs, their overall batting average (.242) is marginally better than Atlanta’s (.239). The Braves have been less consistent at home recently; they hold a disappointing ATS (against-the-spread) record of just two wins in their last seven games at home despite winning four out of five recently overall.

The oddsmakers opened this game with Atlanta as -135 favorites and set the total at eight runs—a line that suggests they expect a close contest but lean towards lower scoring given both pitchers’ capabilities.

From my analysis, I predict that while both teams will have opportunities to score given their offensive stats, ultimately this game will likely trend toward being under due to strong pitching performances from Schwellenbach and Severino combined with recent trends showing low-scoring games from both sides—the Braves having gone under in thirteen of their last seventeen home games reinforces this notion.

In conclusion, I foresee Atlanta edging out New York tonight in what should be another tightly contested division rivalry match-up where pitching reigns supreme over hitting—thus leading us into an expected outcome of fewer total runs scored than projected by oddsmakers.