Denver Broncos @ New York Jets - September 29, 2024

As a fan and analyst, I’m excited to dive into this upcoming matchup between the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets, set to unfold at MetLife Stadium. With both teams looking to gain traction early in the season, this game promises to deliver some intriguing storylines and a battle for victory.

The Jets currently stand at a solid 2-1 record and are positioned as -7-point favorites against the struggling Broncos, who find themselves at 1-2. The Jets’ confidence is fresh off a stunning 24-3 win at home against their division rivals, the Patriots, where they demonstrated both offensive prowess and a stout defense, ultimately covering the spread convincingly. Denver, on the other hand, managed to secure their first win of the season with a 26-7 victory over the Buccaneers. Despite being +6-point underdogs in that game, they rallied to outperform expectations and brought in some positive momentum.

As we delve deeper, it’s essential to consider the offensive production from both sides. The Jets average 22.3 points per game with an impressive 67.6% completion percentage, showcasing their ability to connect on critical plays. Their balanced attack includes an average of 100.7 rushing yards per game, which indicates they pose a multifaceted threat. The running game will be vital against a Denver defense that has been inconsistent.

On the flip side, the Broncos struggle to find their rhythm, averaging only 17.3 points per game with a weaker 62.8% completion percentage. Their passing game has been underwhelming, averaging 200 yards per game and relying heavily on their ground game, which sits at just below 100 yards. With the Jets’ defense stepping up, it may prove challenging for the Broncos to keep pace.

I expect this Sunday’s game to unfold with the Jets taking control early, leveraging their ability to move the ball effectively and capitalize on Denver’s weak spots. Though I predict the Jets will emerge victorious, I believe the underdog Broncos will cover the spread. They’ve shown resilience in their last outing, and with the Jets’ habit of keeping games close at home—evident by their inconsistent 2-4 ATS record at home over the past 6 games—I think Denver will keep it competitive.

Furthermore, given both teams’ tendencies—especially Denver’s struggles and the Jets’ strong defense—I foresee the game going under the total of 43 points. With the Broncos averaging 17.3 points per game and the Jets at 22.3, combined their offensive outputs seem to lend themselves to a low-scoring affair, especially when considering how underwhelming Denver’s offense has started the season.

In summary, while I believe the Jets will take this one and improve to a 3-1 record, I’m expecting the Broncos to show up and cover that spread, with a total score landing below the 43-point mark. It should be an exciting game nonetheless, filled with drama and pivotal moments that could swing the momentum for both teams.