Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals - September 29, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I thrive in uncovering insights that often go unnoticed, especially when analyzing the upcoming showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. The numbers leading into this contest paint a compelling picture that hints at an edge for Washington despite the prevailing oddsmakers’ sentiment marking Arizona as a -3-point favorite.

Both teams appear to be on diverging paths, at least in terms of their recent performances. Washington comes in with a record of 2-1 and is fresh off a high-scoring 38-33 victory over the Bengals. They successfully covered the +7.5-point spread in that outing, bolstered by an impressive offensive display. They’ve averaged 26.3 points per game this season with a solid passing game that sees them throw for approximately 221.3 yards per matchup while maintaining a dominating completion percentage of 80.5%. They also boast a healthy rushing game, averaging 153.7 yards per game and 8.8 yards per carry, well above league averages.

In stark contrast, the Cardinals are struggling with a 1-2 record after a disappointing home loss to the Lions. Their ability to score has been hampered, scoring only 13 points against a not-so-dominant Detroit defense. Perrying through their season, they average 27.3 points, but it’s worth noting this number is inflated due to their earlier games where they faced lesser defenses. Their passing stats, with 211.7 yards and a completion rate of 70.2%, are decent but reveal they are more reliant on their rushing game, averaging 144 yards with 8.0 yards per attempt.

Delving deeper, Washington’s offense has shown resilience and capability to put up points, and they’ll be well-prepared for Arizona’s defense. The Commanders have scored over 30 points in their last game, demonstrating explosive potential that is likely to translate well into this matchup as they continue to strike balance between passing and rushing.

Defensively, Arizona is still finding its footing whilst Washington has been opportunistic, often forcing turnovers. Washington’s ability to put pressure on the quarterback could disrupt Arizona’s rhythm and make it challenging for them to surpass the 20-point threshold, especially after their last outing where they only managed 13 points. This is also a team that has been abysmal recently in terms of their win/loss record, going 5-20 SU in their last 25 games.

With all this data in mind, my prediction swings heavily in favor of the Washington Commanders. Not only do I anticipate they will win outright, but I also foresee them covering the spread due to their offensive prowess outmatching Arizona’s current struggles. Furthermore, while the total opened at 46, I’m inclined to believe the game will remain under, given both teams’ recent scoring tendencies. The Cardinals’ potential to struggle offensively coupled with Washington’s hard-hitting defense might just keep this game beneath the over/under line.

In conclusion, the Commanders are poised to secure a victory on Sunday, a proposition supported not just by recent form but by the numbers that tell a much clearer story.