Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots - October 6, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I’m always on the lookout for emerging trends and patterns that could inform how teams might perform on any given Sunday. This week, we have an intriguing division rivalry between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with the Dolphins entering as 6-point favorites.

Both teams are struggling, each sitting at 1-3 on the season, and drowning in a current streak of three consecutive losses. The Dolphins have been particularly poor against the spread, going 0-4 this season and failing to cover their last five games. Additionally, Miami has averaged just 11.25 points per game, which certainly does not inspire confidence.

That said, there is a silver lining for the Dolphins in the air department. They manage to average 211.3 passing yards per game at a completion rate of 63.1%. This indicates a potential for offensive growth and could pose problems for a Patriots defense that has allowed 30 points in their last outing against the 49ers.

On the flip side, the Patriots’ offensive statistics paint a grim picture as well. They are averaging merely 13 points per game, with a subpar 139.5 passing yards and a completion percentage below 60%. Their rushing attack has been somewhat more effective, averaging 126.5 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry. Yet, against a Dolphins defense that has shown lapses, they may still struggle to capitalize on these averages.

The Dolphins’ recent performances include a disappointing 31-12 home loss to the Titans, where they not only failed to cover as the favorites but also indicated their waning confidence. However, looking at their scoring statistics reveals that they are capable of generating yardage, particularly through the air. With noted struggles under center for the Patriots and their inability to score consistently, I suspect we could see the Dolphins lock down defensively, which correlates with the UNDER tendencies. Miami has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games, and it seems probable that the UNDER could again hit in this matchup, especially if both teams continue their offensive woes.

In summary, while both teams are in a rut, the Dolphins have key offensive advantages, particularly in passing. I expect the Dolphins to not only come away with a win but also cover the spread. My prediction for this game: the Dolphins edge the Patriots, the Dolphins cover the spread, and the game will likely finish under the total points, keeping in line with the general offensive struggles we’ve seen this season.