Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers - October 6, 2024

As a former sports statistician, it’s always exciting to delve into the numbers before a matchup, especially between two iconic teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers. This Sunday at Acrisure Stadium, fans should prepare themselves for an engaging contest that, based on the data, favors the Cowboys slightly.

Oddsmakers have opened the Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites, a line that reflects both teams’ current trajectories. Dallas comes into the game with a record of 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread. Despite their record, the Cowboys have shown a tendency for explosiveness, averaging 24.3 points per game. Their passing attack, with an average of 269.5 yards per game and a completion percentage nearing 66%, presents a significant threat to any defense. However, they’ve struggled to cover the spread lately, going just 1-4 against the number in their last five outings.

On the other hand, the Steelers enter with a more favorable record of 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. Their average of 18.8 points per game may not stack up against the Cowboys, but Pittsburgh’s strong rush game, averaging 128.5 yards per game at a healthy 7.4 yards per attempt, creates a good matchup against Dallas. Interestingly, the Steelers have also developed a knack for covering, evident in their 6-2 ATS record over their last eight games. Still, they face difficulty when it comes to the total; the total has gone under in four of their last six games, suggesting that scoring will be at a premium.

Now, let’s break down the scoring metrics. The Cowboys tend to push the total upwards, with five of their last six games going over. Despite their struggles in covering the spread, their scores in the 20s indicate an ability to find the end zone when necessary. Conversely, Pittsburgh’s games have leaned toward the under, evidenced by their average points less than 19. The matchup suggests a potential for a lower-scoring game given Pittsburgh’s strong run game paired with Dallas’s vulnerabilities on defense, particularly in stopping the rush.

In terms of game predictions, I foresee the Cowboys pulling off a win against the Steelers and managing to cover the spread while the total stays under 44.5. Given their offensive numbers and the Steelers’ penchant for slowing down games, we could be looking at a final score that reflects a strategic battle, potentially with the Cowboys edging out the game at around 23-17.

In conclusion, while the Cowboys are the favorite, the Steelers’ tenacity and successful cover history should not be overlooked. However, Dallas’ more potent offensive capability and Pittsburgh’s tendency to play under gives me confidence in a Cowboys win while staying under the total. The beauty of the game lies in its unpredictability, but when matched against the numbers, the Cowboys seem poised for success this Sunday.