San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks - October 10, 2024

As I prepare for the thrilling clash between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field this Thursday, it’s hard not to feel the palpable excitement that comes with an NFC West rivalry game. Both teams are in a crucial spot in the season; they desperately need a win to gain momentum and confidence heading into the next games.

Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as -5.5-point favorites. Based on what we’ve seen from both teams recently — particularly their struggle against the spread — I think it’s safe to expect San Francisco to:
1) Claim victory, and
2) Cover that spread.

The 49ers, with a record of 2-3 in straight-up and against the spread competitions, are coming off a close loss to the Cardinals. While they were the favorites, it was a tough defeat. They’ve recently struggled, with a disheartening 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games. However, given their overall talent, especially with a rushing attack averaging 144 yards per game at an explosive 8.8 yards per attempt, they should have the edge against a Seattle defense that is trying to find its footing.

The Seattle Seahawks have also had their fair share of heartbreak, having lost 29-20 to the Giants in their last outing at home. Their record sits at 3-2 straight up, but their struggles against the spread (1-3-1) weigh heavily on them. Even though Seattle has an impressive average of 24.4 points per game and an accurate passing game with a completion percentage nearing 73.3%, they’ve found it hard to translate that into winning performances. Moreover, their last few games have featured high-scoring outputs, leading to the total exceeding in 4 out of their 5 most recent clashes.

From the numbers, San Francisco averages 25.2 points per game and is slightly more efficient offensively, but their three-point higher average points do not guarantee success. The key to this match will be San Francisco’s ability to limit the explosive plays from Seattle. I expect a close, gritty game, but I believe the 49ers will tighten their defense and find a way to stifle the Seahawks’ offense when it counts.

As for the game total, it opened at 47, but with the way both teams have been trending, it’s likely we see a total score closer to the UNDER tonight. The 49ers have gone over in 5 of their last 7 games, giving the illusion of a shootout, but with defensive adjustments and both offenses struggling to find consistency recently, I predict the score will be lower than what oddsmakers anticipate.

In summary, expect the 49ers to pull off the win while covering the spread, setting themselves on a crucial path to recovery. The total points will likely fall short of what many are hoping for. Each team will experience the pressure that comes with the stakes of a rivalry matchup, but in the end, I believe the 49ers find a way to come out on top.