New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars - October 20, 2024

As I gear up for the pivotal matchup between the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium this Sunday, a win for either team is crucial given their underwhelming starts to the season. Both teams are struggling with a 1-5 record, heading into this clash after consecutive losses that have sapped their momentum.

The oddsmakers have opened with the Jaguars as -6.5-point favorites—a line that reflects the urgency of their season as they look to capitalize on this opportunity against a Patriots squad still searching for its identity. With their current form, the Jaguars have an edge in certain areas, particularly with their offensive outputs. They average roughly 18.8 points per game, supported by solid rushing stats, averaging around 116.5 yards on the ground and 7.0 yards per attempt. This offensive balance could provide them with the edge they need to secure a victory.

In contrast, the Patriots’ offense has struggled mightily. They have averaged just 13.8 points per game and have not been able to establish a consistent passing or rushing attack, highlighted by their rather low 160.2 yards per game through the air. This combination of inadequacy means that while they have a decent rushing game averaging 123.2 yards per game, it often hasn’t translated into sufficient scoring as their offensive aggressiveness remains stagnant.

Moreover, when examining recent performances, both teams face difficulties against the spread. The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games, with those losses contributing to their five-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five, indicating both teams are failing to find ways to cover the spread even in tight contests.

Historically, when facing off, these teams have shown moments of unpredictability, but given the current circumstances, it’s rather difficult to envision the Patriots pulling off a victory. However, I predict that the underdog Patriots will keep it closer than expected, ultimately covering the spread due to their gritty determination to turn their fortunes.

But in terms of outright victors, I am leaning towards the Jaguars. They have a slight edge with their offensive capabilities and their need to reverse their fortunes adds pressure to deliver a performance that could ignite their season.

As for the total points, it’s hard to imagine both squads lighting up the scoreboard given their current forms. Therefore, I suspect the combined score will likely come in under the opening total of 42.5. Both teams have struggled offensively, and I expect a defensive battle with each side attempting to impose their will on the other.

In summary, I’m predicting the Jaguars will shine in this crucial contest while the Patriots manage to sneak in under the line—setting us up for an intriguing matchup at Wembley.