Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns - October 20, 2024

As I prepare for the upcoming matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field, I find myself intrigued by the narrative this game presents. The Bengals enter the contest as -5-point favorites, and given recent performances, it’s reasonable to delve into how each team stacks up against each other from a statistical perspective.

Cincinnati is coming off a modest victory, edging out the New York Giants 17-7, which highlighted their defensive capabilities while showcasing some struggles offensively. What stands out is their average of 26.2 points per game this season, which positions them as a more capable offensive unit when compared to their divisional rivals. Their passing game is particularly notable; averaging 263 passing yards with a commendable 71.4% completion rate suggests that their quarterback is finding success and consistency in the air. Paired with a solid rushing attack of 100.2 yards a game and over 7.7 yards per attempt, the Bengals have built a diverse offense that can adapt.

On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns have been mired in struggles, losing four consecutive games. Their average points per game sits at a paltry 15.8, reflecting significant difficulties on the offensive end. With just 172.7 passing yards per game and a completion percentage of 62.4%, their air attack has been substantially less effective. Additionally, their rushing game hasn’t offered enough balance, averaging 97.2 yards per game with only 5.4 yards per attempt. In short, Cleveland’s recent form indicates a team grappling to find its offensive identity.

From a betting perspective, these stats paint a compelling picture. The Bengals have proven to be a decent bet against the spread, achieving a 17-8 record in their last 25 road games, while the Browns have struggled, sitting at 2-6 against the spread in their last eight matchups. The momentum clearly favors Cincinnati, and their ability to cover the spread seems probable given the disparity in offensive production and recent form.

Debunking one of the most persistent myths in betting—one that suggests that home-field advantage is all that matters—data indicates that the Bengals’ overall performance outshines Cleveland’s by a notable margin. While the Browns will be looking to turn the tide at home, their current one-dimensional approach on offense doesn’t inspire confidence against a Bengals team that can both run and pass effectively.

As for the total, the game opened at 46, but considering both teams’ recent offensive outputs—particularly Cleveland’s struggles—it’s reasonable to lean toward the UNDER. The Bengals might contribute significantly to the score, but I suspect that even with a potential increase in scoring from Cincinnati, the Browns will not muster enough to make the total reach the expected benchmark.

In summary, if I were to make predictions, I’d say the Bengals take this one decisively, covering the spread in the process. Expect the total to remain under, likely echoing the trends we’ve seen from the Browns this season. The data suggests that Cincinnati will prevail, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland finds a way back into this game.