NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Austin Reaves +700 (Magic vs. Lakers)

The best value for your best NBA first basket bets tonight is on Austin Reaves of the LA Lakers! Reaves is getting a fantastic price to score the first points against the Orlando Magic this evening. With Anthony Davis taking the opening tip-off at center court, Reaves and the Lakers are in good hands for the first possession of the game.

Davis ranks among the top jump ballers in the NBA! Last season, Davis won 65 jump balls to finish in a tie with Jarrett Allen for the most in 2024-25. He was a winner in 61.90% of jump balls, and is off to a similar start this season.

The Lakers’ center has won 10 jump balls for a 62.50% success rate heading into Thursday night. The Magic haven’t had nearly the same effort in jump balls, so I’m confident that Davis collects the first tip-off and gets possession of the game for the Lakers.

After the Lakers control the first possession, there is a ton of value on Reaves to score the first points at +700 odds! Reaves has been involved heavily in the offense this season. He is on pace for a career-high in points through the first 14 games of the 2024-25 campaign.

AUSTIN REAVES DAGGER 🤑 pic.twitter.com/6KLE6CcxHG

— Lakers All Day Everyday (@LADEig) November 14, 2024

Reaves is also shooting the ball more than ever in his career. The 26-year-old shooting guard has averaged 13.6 shots per game. He is getting his shots off and hitting at a solid 45% clip. At +700, Reaves is the best NBA first basket bet on the board tonight!

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.