NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer bets

I was surprised to see the odds for Brunson to get the first basket in the game against the Celtics today. He attempted the first shot in 27.8% of Knicks games last year, scoring the opening basket in 17.8%. That’s a crazy number that clearly shows New York’s go-to guy in the first possession.

Furthermore, I expect the Knicks to win the jump ball in this one. It should be a duel between Karl-Anthony Towns and Al Horford in the absence of Kristaps Porzingis. KAT won the jump ball the last time he faced the veteran, so he’s a favorite again.

Horford has been decent in jump ball situations in the past, but he’s getting older and slower, so the younger big man should be the favorite in this one. On top of that, I expect KAT to enter the season with a chip on his shoulder and start strong to prove the doubters wrong.

All things considered, the probability of Brunson getting the first shot and making it is definitely better than the 18.18% offered by the odds of +450. That might be higher than his average last year, but the jump ball should go to the Knicks.

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.