2024 New York Marathon Predictions: Tola, Obiri Aiming for Back-to-Back in the Big Apple

2024 New York Marathon Predictions: Tola, Obiri Aiming for Back-to-Back in the Big Apple

The 2024 New York Marathon odds features lines for the final race of the World Marathon Major year. Both defending champions are back to try to keep their crowns. But will the world catch up to them?

Odds for the New York Marathon are usually available a day or two ahead of the event at Bovada. Our team will closely follow all bookmakers likely give you the most recent New York Marathon betting odds as soon as the odds are available.

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New York Marathon 2024 Route

The New York Marathon route takes runners throughout all five boroughs in the Big Apple, starting in Staten Island near the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge. Runners will then head through Brooklyn, Queens, and Manhattan, then the Bronx, and back to Central Park in Manhattan, where the finish line awaits!

The New York Marathon features more elevation changes than most marathons, for example, the relatively flat Chicago Marathon. It starts around 100 feet above sea level, and has a minimum elevation of seven feet, and rises to a maximum of 260 feet.

Favorites for the 2024 New York Marathon

Let’s kick things off by looking at the favorites in the men’s division at the New York Marathon.

Men

Tamirat Tola (Ethiopia)

Tola set the course record of 2:04:58 in winning the 2023 New York Marathon, then he went on to set the Olympic marathon record of 2:06:26 to win gold in Paris! Tola is nominated for Male Out of Stadium Athlete of the Year by the World Athletics organization.

The 33-year-old Kenyan is in incredible form over the last two years, as he won gold at the 2022 World Championships, bronze at the 2022 Tokyo Marathon, and another bronze at the 2023 London Marathon. Tola will be tough to knock off the throne in the men’s division!

Bashir Abdi (Belgium)

Abdi finished second to Tola at the marathon event in Paris, and he won bronze at Tokyo 2020. The Belgian also won bronze at the 2022 Worlds, along with a silver medal from the 2020 Tokyo Marathon, a pair of bronze medals at the 2022 London Marathon, and the 2023 Chicago Marathon.

The 35-year-old has finished in the top four in his last nine marathons, so consistency isn’t the issue. Does Abdi have enough of a closing kick to win his first Marathon Major? Take a look at his odds at online sportsbooks.

Albert Korir (Kenya)

Korir finished second to Abdi in New York last year, and also won this race in 2021. He has finished in the top two in three of the last four New York Marathons!

The 30-year-old Kenyan came in fifth at the Boston Marathon. But for whatever reason, he really loves the Big Apple, so Korir’s New York Marathon betting odds have to be considered at Bovada.

Women

Now, we’ll survey the women’s 2024 New York Marathon favorites for this weekend’s race.

Hellen Obiri (Kenya)

Obiri has three Marathon Major wins, going back-to-back at the Boston Marathon in 2023 and 2024, and she also won this race last year. She also won her third Olympic medal as Obiri won silver in 2016 and 2020 in the 5,000-meter race, and bronze this summer in Paris.

Does the 34-year-old Kenyan have enough in the tank for one final marathon in 2024? She will be a popular pick in the 2024 New York Marathon predictions!

Dakotah Lindwurm (United States)

Lindwurm finished 12th at the Olympics, and she is the United States’ best chance for a win in the women’s division since Stephanie Bruce won in 2020!

The Minnesota native also finished 12th at the 2023 Chicago Marathon, so she has a lot of ground to make up. But Lindwurm will have the crowd behind her, and could spark the 29-year-old to a famous victory! She might offer a little more online sports betting value than the favorites.

Sharon Lokedi (Kenya)

Lokedi won the 2022 New York Marathon in her very first marathon, then finished third in last year’s edition. The Kenyan also finished just behind Obiri in the battle for the bronze medal in Paris.

Lokedi also finished second to Obiri at the 2024 Boston Marathon, and there was the race in Paris. She would love to have another crack at her compatriot. Can the 30-year-old get it done in 2024 on the streets of New York? Lokedi will be another popular New York Marathon prediction at Bovada.

New York Marathon Weather Predictions for 2024

The weather for the New York Marathon on Sunday, November 3rd will start off chilly in the morning when the runners start at 8:00 AM ET. It’ll be 42 degrees Fahrenheit in the morning, and the top runners won’t get to feel the high of 57 degrees in the afternoon. But it’ll slowly warm up throughout the morning as they get going.

New York Marathon by the Numbers

  • The 2024 New York Marathon will have around 53,000 runners taking part
  • The 2023 edition had around 51,000 runners.
  • Grete Waitz of Norway leads all women with nine victories in the New York Marathon, winning each year between 1978 and 1988, except for 1981 and 1987.
  • Bill Rodgers of the United States leads the way for the men with four victories, winning each year from 1976 to 1979.
  • Kenyans have dominated recently, winning eight of the last 11 on the men’s side, and nine of the last 11 on the women’s side.

New York Marathon Previous Winners

Past Men’s Winners

YEARRUNNERCOUNTRYTIME
2023Tamirat TolaEthiopia2:04:58 (Course Record)
2022Evans ChebetKenya2:08:41
2021Albert KorirKenya2:08:41
2020Kevin QuinnUnited Kingdom2:23:48
2019Geoffrey KamwororKenya2:08:13
2018Lelisa DesisaEthiopia2:05:59
2017Geoffrey KamwororKenya2:10:53
2016Ghirmay GhebreslassieEritrea2:07:51
2015Stanley BiwottKenya2:10:34
2014Wilson KipsangKenya2:10:59
2013Geoffrey MutaiKenya2:08:24

Past Women’s Winners

YEARRUNNERCOUNTRYTIME
2023Hellen ObiriKenya2:27:23
2022Sharon LokediKenya2:23:23
2021Peres JepchirchirKenya2:22:39
2020Stephanie BruceUnited States2:35:28
2019Joyciline JepkosgeiKenya2:22:38
2018Mary KeitanyKenya2:22:48
2017Shalene FlanaganUnited States2:26:53
2016Mary KeitanyKenya2:24:26
2015Mary KeitanyKenya2:24:25
2014Mary KeitanyKenya2:25:07
2013Priscah JeptooKenya2:25:07

New York Marathon 2024 Predictions

For my 2024 New York Marathon predictions on the men’s side, I’ll go with Tamirat Tola of Ethiopia to cap his incredible year with another win, and he’ll go back-to-back in the Big Apple!

The Bet
TAMIRAT TOLA

On the women’s side, I’m sticking with Kenya, but I’m going to go with Lokedi to get the better of Obiri and reclaim her crown as the queen of the New York Marathon!

The Bet
SHARON LOKEDI

Where to Bet on the 2024 New York Marathon?

Based on previous years, the New York Marathon odds for 2024 won’t be released until a day or two before the race. Keep an eye on Bovada, the online sportsbook where you’ll find markets for the New York Marathon. At Bovada, you’ll also receive a 100% welcome bonus, up to $1,000, using the promo code, BV1000!

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About the Author
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Finn Archer
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Finn is an experienced writer (having published articles under the name Phil Bowman) and longtime sports enthusiast based in Europe. His particular passion lies in soccer, as both a die-hard fan and seasoned bettor. That said, he’ll dabble in anything involving a ball, bat, or boxing gloves! He’s learned from his share of bad bets over the years and is keen to impart his wisdom so you don’t make the same mistakes. Since joining TSG, Finn has also gained valuable knowledge in the world of online casinos.

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