The 2024 ATP Finals odds suggest that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the most likely winners. However, this is a tournament between the top (healthy) eight men’s players in the ATP rankings, so anything is possible!
Who will win in Turin? Let’s check out the latest odds before I share my analysis of the favorites and my ATP Finals predictions!
2024 ATP Finals Outright Winner Odds
The following ATP World Tour Finals betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | +125 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +200 |
| Alexander Zverev | +650 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +900 |
| Taylor Fritz | +1600 |
| Alex de Minaur | +2000 |
| Andrey Rublev | +2000 |
| Casper Ruud | +4000 |
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner (+125) is favored to finish the year strong with a win in the ATP Finals. The big absentee here is Novak Djokovic, who will be absent due to injuries and will miss the chance to win three consecutive titles.
This makes Sinner the clear favorite following his win in the U.S. Open and multiple other big victories this season. According to the best tennis betting sites, Sinner has an implied chance to win the ATP Finals of 44.4%.
Four-time Grand Slam winner Carlos Alcaraz (+200) has the next shortest odds. The Spaniard holds a 33.3% implied chance to capture his first ATP Finals championship.
Conversely, Casper Ruud (+4000) has the longest ATP Finals odds, with just a 2.4% implied chance of winning! Can Ruud pull off the upset, or will one of the favorites prevail? Find out with my ATP Finals 2024 predictions!
You can find up-to-date ATP Finals winner odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Tennis > ATP > World Tour Finals > Futures.
2024 ATP Finals Format and Key Info
The ATP Finals is a week-long indoor hard-court tournament. Only the top eight players in the ATP Rankings qualify for the event. Since Djokovic will not be active Alex de Minaur takes his spot as the No. 9 ranked player in the world.
The tournament starts in a round-robin format with two groups of four players: the Ilie Nastase and John Newcombe Group. After each player has played each other once, the top two players from each group will advance to the knockouts.They are in the single elimination format, with semifinals and a final to determine the champion.
The top player from each group will face the second-placed player from the other group in the semis. The winners will then meet in the final and play for the ATP Finals 2024 title.
Opening matches are scheduled for Sunday, November 10, and the final is a week later on Sunday, November 17.
2024 ATP Finals Favorites
Before diving into my ATP Finals best bets, let’s dissect the top favorites atop the ATP Finals odds at sports betting sites!
Jannik Sinner (+125)
The 23-year-old is coming off a memorable season and breakout campaign on the ATP Tour. Sinner made a huge splash with championships in the Australian Open and U.S. Open.
He won both of the hard-court majors to put him ahead of the competition in the ATP Rankings. Currently, Sinner has 11,330 points to put him well ahead of Alexander Zverev’s 7,715 points for second.
With Rafael Nadal retiring and Djokovic nearing the end of his career, Sinner is among the next wave of young talent. The Italian is bound to become a household name and win multiple big titles.
He’s well on his way to accomplishing that and can wrap up the year with an ATP Finals to put a bow on his unbelievable campaign.
JANNIK SINNER IS A TWO-TIME GRAND SLAM CHAMPION!! pic.twitter.com/E5VYumaSz6
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 8, 2024
Sinner feels most comfortable on hard courts, where he went an incredible 46-3 in matches in 2024! Additionally, he finished with a 106-19 record when it comes to sets played on hard this year.
I suspect part of the reason is the doping scandal Sinner was involved. He looks determined to clear his name after banned substances accidentally entered his system.
Sinner has been on a tear since returning, so another victory makes a lot of sense.
Carlos Alcaraz (+200)
Sinner’s main rival, Alcaraz, is also part of the youth movement on the ATP Finals. Barring injuries, these two will be battling for top honors on the ATP Tour for a long time. The Spaniard is only 21 and has already accomplished so much in his career.
Alcaraz has won four Grand Slam titles, including the French Open and Wimbledon. With Nadal retiring, Alcaraz is about to take over as the best player in the world on clay. He is also a dominant player on grass, with consecutive wins at Wimbledon in 2023 and 2024.
His maiden Grand Slam win was the 2022 U.S. Open, so Alcaraz has proven that he can win on hard courts as well. Nevertheless, Alcaraz has regularly struggled to put away the top players on a hard surface over the last two years. The talented 21-year-old went 23-6 on hard courts this season, which is a solid winning percentage.
Listen to the CROWD 🔊 🙌@carlosalcaraz & @DaniilMedwed are putting on a show! #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/6dHLp0yBqD
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 8, 2024
However, he could not beat the elite competition when it mattered the most. Alcaraz has the talent to win, but he was routinely stymied. The surface in the ATP Finals simply doesn’t suit him, so I don’t like the odds for Alcaraz, especially when you consider the early exits in the Shanghai Masters and Paris,
Sleepers in the 2024 ATP Finals Odds
Next, let’s take a look at the tennis betting sleepers in the ATP Finals 2024 odds. I anticipate a couple of upsets in the ATP Finals, so it’s worth considering adding a longshot or two to your card!
Taylor Fritz (+1600)
27-year-old Taylor Fritz is not in the same tier as Sinner and Alcaraz, but he is one of the better fresh faces on the ATP Tour. Fritz is a late bloomer of sorts after struggling to find consistency in his early 20s.
TAYLOR MADE‼️
Taylor Fritz becomes the first American man to reach the #USOpen Final since Andy Roddick in 2006 🎾 pic.twitter.com/VNVUHpRWAc
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 7, 2024
He reached the U.S. Open title match after winning six consecutive matches, including over Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev. Although Sinner was too much for Fritz, it was a career-changing performance for the San Diego native.
Fitz enjoyed a solid run in the recent Shanghai Masters, with four victories to reach the semifinals against Djokovic. Overall, Fritz is a respectable 58-24 in hard-court matches over the last two years.
At +1600, Fritz is a strong option for your 2024 ATP Finals betting picks!
Andrey Rublev (+2000)
Russian Andrey Rublev is one of the streakiest players on the ATP Tour. He has the talent to jump into the discussion of top players but can’t find the required consistency to excel.
As a +2000 longshot, it’s worth taking a shot on a streaky player like Rublev. If he is on and feeling confident, the Russian can most certainly contend for the ATP Finals title in Italy. Rublev is by far at his best on a hard court.
While Rublev is iffy, especially on a grass court, he is well worth considering at these odds on a hard surface. Rublev went 32-16 on hard courts this year after going 31-19 in 2023.
I’m not overly confident in Rublev winning, though should be on your radar for a small play given his 2024 ATP Finals winner odds at +2000!
2024 ATP Finals Predictions
Motivation is key when betting on the ATP Finals. Some players have already checked out and are looking forward to vacation. I don’t think that’s going to be the case with Sinner in his home country of Italy.
Back home as the No. 1 tennis player in the world, Sinner will have an abundance of motivation behind him in this tournament. Not only is Sinner in peak form, but the confidence and motivation are there.
The most likely final showdown is Alcaraz vs. Sinner, but as I said, Alcaraz has come up short in big moments before in hard-court matches. I wouldn’t be shocked if Alcaraz was upset before reaching the final match! In short, Sinner at plus odds is the best bet to win the 2024 ATP Finals!
Where to Bet on the 2024 ATP Finals?
The ATP Finals odds for a variety of different bets are available at Bovada! As one of the best-reviewed online betting sites, Bovada offers ATP Finals futures, match odds, live betting, props, and more for betting on the final marquee tennis tournament of the year.
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