Dreaming of becoming a professional athlete? While talent and hard work are essential, your odds of going pro depend just as much on the sport you choose and where you live.
At The Sports Geek, we’ve done the research to uncover which sports and states give you the best shot at going pro—and which paths are nearly impossible. Let’s break it down.
What is the Easiest Sport To Go Pro in?
Not all sports are created equal when it comes to turning pro. Some offer structured pathways and are easier sports to go pro, while others demand overcoming intense global competition and near-impossible odds. Here’s how they stack up:
NFL: The Best Odds
Odds of 1 in 10,243 make football the easiest sport to go pro in, thanks to its large rosters and structured pathways like college drafts.
MLB: Multiple Pathways to the Pros
Baseball comes second with odds of 1 in 22,133, thanks to its minor league system, which offers more chances to climb the ranks.
NBA and NHL: Where Skills Matter
The odds for basketball (1 in 55,585) and hockey (1 in 97,986) are tougher, but they hinge on specific traits:
- In the NBA, height is everything—players under 6’3″ face slim chances.
- In hockey, lifelong skating proficiency and access to ice rinks make or break careers.
The Hardest Sports to Become a Pro Athlete
- Golf and Soccer: High global competition and steep barriers to development (especially in golf) keep odds low.
- Tennis: With odds of 1 in 1,483,781, tennis is the hardest sport to go pro in, thanks to its high costs and global ranking system. You have better odds of winning the lottery than making it to Wimbledon.
Which States Are Easiest to Go Pro?
The most athletic states consistently produce more professional athletes, thanks to a mix of climate, culture, and resources. Here are the top 10 states that lead the way:
Louisiana Tops the List
With odds of 1 in 2,716, Louisiana’s warm climate, deeply rooted sports culture, and powerhouse college programs in football and basketball create a pipeline of pro athletes.
The Southern Powerhouses
Mississippi (1 in 3,161) and Alabama (1 in 3,501) thrive on football culture, Friday Night Lights-style programs, and year-round training weather.
Small But Mighty: Hawaii
At 1 in 4,255, Hawaii is a surprising standout, excelling in football despite its small size, thanks to high participation rates relative to its population.
How Your State Might Determine Whether You Go Pro
We’ve analyzed the data on every state, their top sports, and the odds of turning pro. Your location might matter more than you think when it comes to going pro.
Certain states consistently produce the most pro athletes, from football powerhouses to hockey legends.
Where Warm Weather Wins: Baseball, Basketball, and Football
- Year-Round Training Advantage: States like California, Louisiana, and Alabama dominate these sports because athletes can train outdoors year-round.
- Frozen Fingers vs Footballs: Southern states like Mississippi (1 in 4,330) leave colder states like Massachusetts (1 in 29,817) behind. Throwing a perfect spiral is a lot harder when you’re wearing mittens.
Cold Climates and Hockey: A Perfect Match
- Frozen Assets: States like Minnesota, North Dakota, and Alaska thrive in hockey thanks to long winters, abundant ice rinks, and deeply ingrained hockey cultures.
- Surprising Standout: In Minnesota, the odds of making the NHL are 1 in 9,495, while in Florida, where the ice melts faster than dreams, the odds plummet to 1 in 257,696.
Small States, Big Results
- Alaska’s Dual Threat: Alaska shines in hockey (1 in 19,501)—not shocking for a state that’s basically an ice rink. But its strong football odds (1 in 21,938) prove that even in the land of snow and sled dogs, football dreams can thrive.
- Basketball Brilliance in Tiny States: Delaware (1 in 35,323) and Maryland (1 in 30,953) show that size doesn’t matter when youth programs deliver. Meanwhile, in Texas, where basketball odds are a distant 1 in 79,591, everything might be bigger—except basketball pipelines.
Top 3 States for Going Pro: Which Ones Dominate the Big Leagues?
Why Louisiana Tops NBA Odds (and Small States Shine Too)
- Louisiana (1 in 26,679): The state’s vibrant basketball scene and LSU’s storied legacy, highlighted by legends like Shaquille O’Neal, make it a breeding ground for NBA talent. Basketball isn’t just played here—it’s a way of life.
Why The South Dominates NFL Odds
- No Off-Season Here: It’s no coincidence that Louisiana (1 in 3,593), Mississippi (1 in 4,330) and Alabama (1 in 4,960) lead NFL odds. Athletes can train year-round, perfecting their game while their northern counterparts are stuck shoveling snow.
- Cultural Investment: These southern states offer high school Friday Night Lights, powerhouse college football programs, and intense community pride to create an environment where athletes are pushed to excel at football from a young age.
Winter Builds NHL Legends
- Minnesota (1 in 9,495): Known as the “State of Hockey,” Minnesota takes the crown. With countless ice rinks, and hockey-obsessed towns, Minnesotans practically learn to skate before they can walk.
- Massachusetts (1 in 13,485): With its elite youth leagues and powerhouse college hockey programs like Boston University and Boston College, the Bay State keeps its hockey tradition alive.
- North Dakota: Don’t let the small population fool you—North Dakota punches above its weight thanks to programs like the USHL and the University of North Dakota. It’s a state where winters are so long and cold, playing hockey just makes sense.
The States Hitting Home Runs in MLB Talent
- California (1 in 12,205): With year-round sunny weather, countless youth leagues, and a deep-rooted baseball culture, it’s no surprise that it comes on the top for MLB stars.
- Alabama (1 in 18,380): Rising participation and standout programs make this football state a baseball contender.
- Mississippi (1 in 18,847): Mississippi brings the heat with a growing baseball culture and standout high school programs. Southern grit meets America’s pastime, creating an unexpected MLB pipeline.
Unexpected Champs: States That Shine in Niche Sports
- Vermont Swings to the Top in Golf (1 in 114,046): Who would’ve guessed that a state famous for ski slopes and snowy peaks would ace golf? Despite a short playing season, Vermont’s challenging courses and dedicated golf culture make it a surprising standout.
- New Hampshire’s Surprise in Soccer (1 in 126,025): With strong youth programs, this unexpected top state proves it can compete, even though the odds of going pro are still sky-high.
Why Do Some States Dominate Certain Sports?
Some states consistently outperform others in producing professional athletes. Here’s why:
Access to Resources
States like California and Louisiana thrive in their respective top sports (baseball and football) thanks to extensive youth leagues, top-tier training facilities, and access to elite coaching.
Cultural Influence
From football in the South to hockey in Minnesota, sports are often a way of life — influencing higher participation rates and better development programs.
Climate
Warm-weather states allow for year-round training, giving athletes a major developmental edge.
Similarly, colder weather states provide endless ice time and cultivate a deep cultural bond with hockey.
Population Size
Larger states like California naturally produce more pros, while smaller states like Delaware punch above their weight with effective programs.
The Future of Pro Sports: Growing Leagues and New Opportunities
Women’s Leagues Are Rising: Leagues like the WNBA and NWSL are creating more opportunities for pro-level talent, proving that the path to stardom isn’t just for the guys anymore.
Soccer’s Big Kick in the US: Thanks to growing investments in leagues like the MLS and NWSL, soccer is finally stepping into the spotlight stateside.
Your Chances of Going Pro: How to Tip the Scales
Becoming a pro athlete isn’t just about talent—it’s about strategy. Here’s how to maximize your odds:
Choose Your Sport Strategically: Sports like football and baseball offer more opportunities thanks to their larger leagues and developmental systems.
Relocate to the Right State: If hockey’s your dream, Minnesota’s hockey-first culture can give you the edge. If it’s basketball, Louisiana might be your MVP.
Leverage Your Strengths: Tall? Think basketball. Not so tall? Baseball might be your ticket. Every sport rewards different traits—find the one that matches yours.
Final Takeaway
Dreaming of going pro may feel daunting, but the data shows there are ways to improve your chances. From choosing the right sport to leveraging your strengths, strategy matters as much as skill. Reflect on your goals, play to your strengths, and take the first step toward beating the odds.
