Columbus Blue Jackets @ Tampa Bay Lightning - December 17, 2024

As the Columbus Blue Jackets prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena, the matchup presents an intriguing contrast in team performance and trends. The Lightning enter this game as -172 favorites, reflecting their recent form and overall stronger record compared to the struggling Blue Jackets.

Tampa Bay comes into this game with a solid offensive output, averaging 4 goals per game on 28.6 shots. Their shooting percentage of 13.9% indicates a potent offense that can capitalize on scoring opportunities. Additionally, they boast a respectable power play percentage of 28.2%, converting nearly one in four chances with the man advantage. Their recent success is underscored by a perfect 5-0 against the spread (ATS) streak, showcasing their ability to not only win but also cover spreads convincingly.

On defense, Tampa has been effective as well, boasting an impressive save percentage of 89.5%. This defensive reliability is complemented by a penalty kill rate of 79.5%, allowing them to limit opposing teams’ scoring opportunities while shorthanded.

Conversely, Columbus has struggled significantly this season with a record of just 12-14-5 and currently finds themselves on a four-game losing streak. They average only 3.3 goals per game on slightly more shots (30.9), which translates to a lower shooting percentage of 11%. Their power play remains underwhelming at just an 18% conversion rate—an area where they will need improvement if they hope to compete effectively against Tampa Bay.

Defensively, Columbus’s numbers are concerning; they allow for only an 87.4% save rate and have an even lower penalty kill efficiency at just under 73%. These metrics suggest that they struggle both in preventing goals during even strength situations and when down a player.

Given these statistics and current trends, I predict that Tampa Bay will secure the victory tonight due to their superior offensive capabilities and defensive stability. However, I believe Columbus will manage to keep it close enough to cover the spread given their desperation for points after several losses.

In terms of total score predictions, I expect it will fall below the set line of 6.5 based on both teams’ recent performances and tendencies—Columbus’s inability to consistently find the back of the net paired with Tampa’s strong defensive play should lead us toward an UNDER outcome tonight.

In summary:
1) **Prediction**: Tampa Bay wins.
2) **Spread**: Columbus covers.
3) **Total**: Expecting UNDER on total goals scored.
This matchup could prove pivotal for both teams as they navigate through their respective seasons—Tampa looking to build momentum while Columbus seeks redemption from their recent struggles.