San Jose Sharks @ Edmonton Oilers - December 21, 2024

As the San Jose Sharks prepare to take on the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place, we can expect an intriguing matchup that highlights contrasting trends and statistics. The Oilers, currently favored with a moneyline of -476, come into this game riding high after a recent 3-2 victory over the Boston Bruins. Meanwhile, the Sharks are looking to snap a three-game losing streak following their 4-2 defeat against the Colorado Avalanche.

From an offensive standpoint, the Oilers have been more productive this season. Averaging 3.3 goals per game with a shooting percentage of 10.1%, they also generate around 32.4 shots each night. Their corsi percentage of 54.7% indicates they control play better than their opponents, while their offensive zone percentage of 55.3% suggests they spend ample time in scoring positions.

On special teams, Edmonton boasts a power play success rate of 22.2%, converting approximately 0.6 power play goals per game from about 2.5 chances—making them efficient when given opportunities with the man advantage.

In contrast, San Jose’s offense has struggled more significantly this season, averaging just 2.8 goals per game with a slightly higher shooting percentage at 10.3%. They generate fewer shots (27.6) and have lower possession metrics compared to Edmonton (corsi percentage of 46.7%). Their power play is less effective as well, only converting at a rate of 17.9%.

Defensively, both teams show some vulnerabilities but not drastically different save percentages; Edmonton sits at an impressive save rate of 89.1%, while San Jose marginally leads with an average save rate of 89.3%. However, when it comes to penalty killing efficiency—Edmonton struggles at just under 74%, compared to San Jose’s relatively better performance at nearly 79%.

Given these stats and trends leading into Saturday’s contest, I predict that Edmonton will emerge victorious due to their superior overall performance metrics and current form—having won six out of their last seven games overall and five out of seven on home ice.

However, I believe that San Jose will manage to cover the spread despite being underdogs in this matchup due to their ability to stay competitive in recent outings (4-1 ATS in their last five games). Additionally, given both teams’ tendencies toward lower-scoring affairs recently—with five or fewer total goals scored in several previous matchups—I anticipate that this game’s total will fall under the set line of six-and-a-half.

In summary: Expect Edmonton to win but for San Jose to cover the spread; look for an outcome where total goals remain below expectations based on recent trends from both squads.