Washington Capitals @ Nashville Predators - January 11, 2025

Alright, folks, we’ve got a showdown brewing at Bridgestone Arena this Saturday as the Washington Capitals take on the Nashville Predators. With the Capitals coming in as slight favorites at -106 on the moneyline and an over/under set at 6.5, this matchup is shaping up to be quite intriguing.

Let’s start with the Capitals. They come into this game with a solid record of 27-10-5, but they’ve had some recent struggles, going just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games. On top of that, they’ve been particularly weak on the road lately, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven away games. However, they do boast a decent overall performance with an average of 3.7 goals per game and a power play percentage hovering around 23.6%. Their shooting percentage is notably higher than Nashville’s at about 13.4%, which suggests they’re more efficient when it comes to converting opportunities.

Now let’s look at Nashville—a team that has seen better days with a record of just 13-21-7. They’re struggling offensively, averaging only 2.4 goals per game and sporting a meager shooting percentage of just 8.8%. The Predators have also faced issues on special teams; their power play operates at only about 19.5%. Defensively, they manage to save around 89.5% of shots faced but still find themselves allowing too many goals given their lackluster offensive output.

When you stack these two teams side by side, it’s clear that Washington has the edge offensively and defensively—particularly in terms of goal-scoring ability and efficiency on power plays. The Predators’ defense may be decent on paper with an 84% penalty kill rate, but if Washington can draw penalties like they have been doing lately (around three power play chances per game), I expect them to capitalize.

The Capitals are likely itching for a bounce-back after their recent loss to Montreal—especially against a team like Nashville that’s been reeling from consistent losses (they recently fell to Winnipeg by a score of 5-2). Given how both teams have performed recently and considering Washington’s offensive prowess versus Nashville’s ongoing struggles, I’m predicting a Capitals victory tonight.

As for covering the spread? I believe Washington will not only win but also cover that spread comfortably despite their recent road woes because let’s face it: facing off against an underperforming Predators squad should provide them enough motivation and firepower.

Finally, looking at that total set at 6.5; I’m leaning towards the under here given Nashville’s offensive inefficiencies combined with both teams’ defensive stats holding up relatively well this season.

In summary: I’m calling it—a Capitals win tonight while covering the spread! Expect a final score leaning toward something like 3-1 or maybe even lower if things go south for Nashville’s offense again! Keep your lucky socks handy; you might need them!