Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons - January 18, 2025

As the Phoenix Suns prepare to face off against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena, we can expect an intriguing matchup that reflects both teams’ recent performances and statistical trends. Oddsmakers have opened with the Suns as -3-point favorites, and while this might seem close on paper, a deeper dive into their stats reveals why I believe the Suns will not only win but also cover the spread.

Starting with offensive efficiency, both teams are nearly neck-and-neck in terms of points per game. The Suns average 112.5 points on a slightly better shooting percentage of 47.4%, compared to Detroit’s 112.4 points on 47.0% shooting. However, when it comes to three-point shooting, Phoenix edges out Detroit with a 37.7% conversion rate from beyond the arc versus Detroit’s 36.9%. Moreover, the Suns excel in ball movement with an average of 27.4 assists per game compared to Detroit’s 25.8 assists.

Defensively, there is a noticeable difference in how each team performs under pressure. The Pistons give up more turnovers (15.8) than they force steals (7.4), which indicates potential vulnerabilities when facing a disciplined offensive team like Phoenix that averages just under 14 turnovers per game (13.9). On the other hand, the Suns are more effective at forcing turnovers while committing fewer fouls (17.9) than their opponents do (20.3 for Detroit), which could lead to fewer free throw opportunities for Detroit—a critical factor given their lower free throw percentage of around 76.6%.

Recent trends further bolster my prediction: Phoenix has been hot lately with a record of 4-1 straight up over their last five games despite struggling against spreads overall (1-4-1 ATS). Conversely, while Detroit boasts an impressive home record of 5-2 SU over their last seven games, they’ve struggled recently at home going just 4-9 ATS in their last thirteen contests.

The total for this game is set at 229; however, considering both teams’ recent scoring outputs and defensive capabilities—especially given that Phoenix has gone UNDER in ten out of its last thirteen games—I expect this trend to continue tonight as well.

In summary, I’m predicting that the Phoenix Suns will emerge victorious against the Pistons and cover the spread comfortably due to superior offensive execution and defensive pressure leading to forced turnovers and fewer fouls committed by them overall; thus limiting scoring opportunities for Detroit from both field goals and free throws alike—keeping our total expected score below that line as well!