New York Islanders @ Philadelphia Flyers - January 30, 2025

Divisional bragging rights are on the line tonight as the New York Islanders face off against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but based on recent performances and stats, I’m leaning heavily towards the Islanders coming out on top in this matchup.

Let’s break it down. The Islanders come into this game riding a wave of momentum after a solid 5-2 victory over the Avalanche. They’ve been particularly impressive lately, going 5-0 straight up in their last five games. This isn’t just luck; they’re showing a newfound confidence that has translated to results on the ice. While they may not be lighting up the scoreboard with an average of 2.7 goals per game, they’re finding ways to win and that’s what matters most.

On the flip side, we have the Flyers who are reeling after suffering a harsh 5-0 defeat against the Devils. They’ve struggled to find consistency, especially offensively with only 2.9 goals per game and a power play percentage hovering around 16%. Their lack of offensive firepower combined with an inconsistent defense—allowing an alarming number of shots—doesn’t bode well for them tonight.

Now let’s talk about those defensive stats because they matter immensely in this league. The Islanders boast an impressive save percentage of nearly 90%, which is critical when you’re facing a team like Philadelphia that has shown it can struggle to convert chances (11% shooting percentage). Conversely, Philadelphia’s penalty kill rate sits at just under 77%, which is concerning given that New York has had its own struggles on special teams but still manages to find ways to score when it counts.

Looking at how these two teams stack up against each other, I see value in taking New York not only to win but also to cover any spread set by oddsmakers (currently -111 moneyline favorites). The Flyers have gone just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games while New York is perfect against the spread during their recent hot streak.

As for total points? With both teams averaging low-scoring outputs lately and given that four of Philadelphia’s last six games have gone under, I’m predicting another low-scoring affair tonight. The total opened at 6.5 but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something closer to or below six goals combined.

So my prediction? The Islanders secure a victory tonight, covering any spread put forth by oddsmakers while keeping things tight defensively leading us under that total mark once again. It’s divisional hockey—expect grit and determination from both sides—but I’m banking on New York pulling through when it matters most!