Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets - February 1, 2025

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to face off against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center, we find ourselves analyzing a matchup that heavily favors the Nuggets. Oddsmakers have opened with Denver as -14.5-point favorites, and I believe they will not only win but also cover that spread.

Looking at both teams’ offensive stats paints a clear picture of why I lean towards Denver in this contest. The Nuggets are scoring an impressive 120.4 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field, which puts them among the league’s elite offensively. Their ability to distribute the ball is evident in their average of nearly 31 assists per game, showcasing their teamwork and efficiency.

In stark contrast, Charlotte struggles significantly on offense, averaging just 107 points per game with a shooting percentage of only 43%. Their three-point shooting is even more concerning at just over 34%, making it difficult for them to stretch defenses effectively. With only about 24 assists per game, they lack fluidity in their offensive sets and often rely on individual efforts rather than cohesive team play.

Defensively, both teams have room for improvement; however, Denver’s metrics show a slight edge. They allow slightly fewer rebounds and turnovers compared to Charlotte while maintaining similar steal rates. While neither team excels defensively—both allowing over 110 points per game—the disparity in overall scoring capabilities gives Denver a significant advantage.

Charlotte comes into this matchup having lost three straight games and struggling mightily with consistency. They did manage to cover as +13-point underdogs against the Clippers last time out but still fell short in terms of overall performance. In fact, they’ve been inconsistent lately with just two covers in their last six games (2-3-1 ATS).

On the other hand, while Denver has shown some vulnerability by failing to cover recently (1-4 ATS in their last five), they still managed an exciting win against Philadelphia last time out—a high-scoring affair that ended at 137-134 where both teams combined for an astonishing total of 271 points.

Given these trends and statistics leading up to Saturday’s clash, I expect a high-scoring affair leaning toward Denver’s favor once again despite potential defensive lapses from both sides. However, I predict that due to Charlotte’s ongoing struggles on offense combined with Denver’s capability to put up big numbers efficiently will lead us closer to an UNDER outcome than many might anticipate given these teams’ recent performances.

Ultimately, my prediction is straightforward: expect a commanding victory for the Nuggets who should comfortably cover the spread while keeping the total score under what oddsmakers have set at 220 points—thanks largely to Charlotte’s ongoing offensive woes coupled with Denver’s strong defense when needed most.