San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans - February 25, 2025

As the San Antonio Spurs prepare to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center, divisional bragging rights will be up for grabs. The Pelicans enter this matchup as -3-point favorites, but based on recent trends and statistical insights, I believe the Spurs are poised to pull off an upset.

In their last encounter, the Pelicans bested the Spurs 114-96. However, a closer look reveals that both teams have struggled recently. The Spurs hold a record of 24-31 SU (straight-up) and are just 25-30 ATS (against the spread). Their recent form shows they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and only 2-5 SU in their past seven outings. This inconsistency raises questions about their ability to cover even a modest spread.

On the other hand, the Pelicans’ record of 14-43 SU and 23-33-1 ATS speaks volumes about their struggles this season. They’ve been particularly abysmal lately with a dismal 2-11 SU in their last thirteen games. At home, they have managed just seven wins out of twenty-two attempts, which is concerning considering they’ll be playing in front of their own fans.

When analyzing offensive stats per game, it’s evident that both teams have had issues scoring efficiently. The Spurs average approximately 113 points on a shooting percentage of around 46%, while the Pelicans lag behind with about 110 points on roughly 45% shooting from the field. Interestingly enough, both teams share similar three-point shooting percentages—35% for San Antonio and nearly 35% for New Orleans—which suggests that perimeter defense could play a crucial role in determining tonight’s outcome.

Defensively speaking, San Antonio has an edge when it comes to rebounding; they average around 44 rebounds per game compared to New Orleans’ near 43 rebounds. This slight advantage could translate into more second-chance opportunities for San Antonio—a key factor in close games like these.

The total opened at a robust 239 points; however, I anticipate we might see it go OVER given both teams’ tendencies to score heavily despite defensive lapses. The Spurs have shown some resilience offensively with an average of almost 29 assists per game compared to New Orleans’ approximate figure of just over 25 assists per game.

Overall, while oddsmakers favor New Orleans by three points tonight, my prediction leans towards San Antonio not only winning but also covering that spread effectively as underdogs often do when facing struggling opponents like the Pelicans. With both offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard combined with subpar defenses yielding plenty of opportunities—expect fireworks on offense leading us toward an OVER result as well.

So mark your calendars; this matchup promises excitement as two division rivals clash once again!