Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets - March 12, 2025

Alright, folks! Buckle up because we’ve got a thrilling matchup on our hands tonight as the Phoenix Suns roll into Houston to take on the Rockets at Toyota Center. Now, I know what you’re thinking: the Rockets are favored by 4.5 points, but let me tell you why I’m feeling that Suns magic tonight!

First off, let’s talk about how these teams have been performing lately. The Rockets are riding high with a three-game winning streak and have shown some solid play at home, covering the spread in four of their last five games there. But don’t sleep on the Suns! They’ve been quietly turning things around with a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games. Sure, they’ve had their struggles overall with a 30-35 record, but they’re not going down without a fight.

When it comes to scoring, both teams can put up points like nobody’s business. The Suns average about 114.4 points per game with an impressive shooting percentage of 48.1%. They also excel from beyond the arc at nearly 37.8%, which could be crucial against a Rockets defense that has allowed some open looks this season. Meanwhile, Houston is putting up around 113.2 points per game but is shooting just over 45% from the field—definitely not bad but not quite as efficient as Phoenix.

Now let’s dive into those defensive stats because that’s where it gets interesting! The Rockets grab more rebounds (about 48 per game) compared to the Suns (around 42), which gives them an edge in controlling possessions. However, they also commit more fouls and turn over the ball slightly more often than Phoenix does—something that could come back to haunt them if they aren’t careful.

What really stands out for me is how well Phoenix has been playing recently despite their overall record. They covered against Memphis even in defeat and have shown resilience when facing tough opponents. Plus, they’ve gone OVER in seven of their last nine games; however, I think tonight might be different given both teams’ recent trends toward lower-scoring affairs.

So here’s my prediction: I believe the Suns will pull off an upset victory tonight! With their ability to shoot efficiently and create opportunities through assists (nearly 28 per game), they’ll find ways to exploit any weaknesses in Houston’s defense while keeping turnovers low.

I’m calling it now—the Suns cover that spread and win outright! And for those betting on totals? Expect this one to stay UNDER as both teams tighten up defensively after some high-scoring outings recently.

Get your lucky jerseys ready because it’s going to be an electrifying night of basketball! Go Suns!