New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors - March 15, 2025

As the Golden State Warriors prepare to host the New York Knicks at Chase Center, there’s a palpable sense of excitement surrounding this matchup. The Warriors are currently riding a six-game winning streak and have shown impressive form recently, but the Knicks are not to be underestimated.

Oddsmakers have set the Warriors as -7-point favorites, with an over/under total of 228 points. However, based on recent performances and statistical insights, I believe we might see an upset in favor of the Knicks.

Let’s break down some key stats. The Warriors average 113.6 points per game with a shooting percentage of 44.97%. They’ve been effective from beyond the arc at 35.9%, though their free-throw percentage sits lower at 75%. They also dish out around 29 assists per game, which indicates they play a team-oriented style.

In contrast, the Knicks boast an offense that averages 117.1 points per game with a significantly higher field goal percentage of nearly 49%. Their three-point shooting is slightly better than Golden State’s at 36.5%, and they excel at getting to the line with an impressive free-throw rate of just over 80%. This efficiency gives them a slight edge offensively.

Defensively, both teams show strengths and weaknesses that could impact this game significantly. The Warriors grab about 45.9 rebounds per game while forcing approximately nine steals; however, they also commit nearly 20 fouls each outing and struggle with turnovers (around 13.9). On the other hand, the Knicks pull down about 42.9 rebounds and generate close to eight steals but are more disciplined defensively with only about 17 fouls committed per game.

The recent trends tell another story as well: New York has struggled against the spread lately, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games despite being strong overall winners (15-7 SU in their last twenty-two games). Meanwhile, Golden State has been solid against spreads too—8-3-1 in their last twelve contests—which makes them seem like a safe bet on paper.

However, looking deeper into these numbers reveals that while Golden State has been hot lately—winning five straight—their defense can be suspect when pressured by high-scoring opponents like New York who thrive on offensive execution.

Given all this context and analysis leading up to Saturday’s contest, my prediction is that we will see an upset where New York beats Golden State outright while also covering that +7 spread due to their superior offensive efficiency combined with improved defensive discipline compared to previous outings.

Moreover, considering both teams’ scoring capabilities and recent trends toward overs (Golden State hitting over in six of their last nine), I anticipate this matchup will exceed the projected total of 228 points as both offenses find ways to exploit each other’s defensive lapses throughout four quarters of basketball action.

So buckle up for what should be an entertaining night at Chase Center!