Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder - March 21, 2025

As the Oklahoma City Thunder prepare to face off against the Charlotte Hornets, the numbers tell a compelling story. The Thunder come into this matchup riding a four-game winning streak and boasting an impressive 57-13 record. They have been particularly strong at home, where they recently crushed the Philadelphia 76ers by a score of 133-100, covering as -12-point favorites. This performance not only highlighted their offensive prowess but also underscored their ability to dominate on both ends of the court.

Offensively, Oklahoma City averages a robust 119 points per game with a shooting percentage of nearly 48%. Their three-point shooting sits at around 36%, complemented by an excellent free throw percentage of over 82%. With an average of 26 assists per game, they demonstrate fluid ball movement that often leads to open shots. Defensively, they grab about 45 rebounds per game while averaging over ten steals—indicative of their aggressive defense. However, they do need to manage turnovers better; currently averaging just under twelve per game.

On the other hand, we have the Charlotte Hornets struggling with a record of 18-51. Their recent form is concerning as they’ve gone just 6-19 in their last twenty-five games and are an abysmal 3-11 on the road in their last fourteen contests. In their latest outing against the Knicks, they managed a respectable win at home but still fall short when compared to Oklahoma City’s overall performance metrics.

Charlotte’s offense lags significantly behind that of Oklahoma City, scoring just about 106 points per game with a field goal percentage hovering around 43%. Their three-point shooting is less effective at approximately 34%, which makes it difficult for them to keep pace with high-scoring teams like OKC. Additionally, their assist numbers are lower than those of the Thunder at roughly twenty-four per game—a sign that they’re not generating enough quality shot opportunities.

Defensively speaking, while Charlotte grabs slightly more rebounds than OKC (around 45), they struggle with turnovers—averaging over fifteen per game—which can be detrimental against such an efficient offense like that of Oklahoma City’s.

Given all these factors and trends leading into this match-up on Friday night at Paycom Center, I predict that the Thunder will not only win but will cover the hefty spread set at -18.5 points. The total opened at 231.5 points; however, considering Charlotte’s struggles offensively and OKC’s defensive capabilities coupled with recent trends showing lower scoring outputs from both teams in certain matchups, I expect this game’s total may lean towards going under.

In summary: expect Oklahoma City to extend its winning streak tonight against Charlotte while covering the spread comfortably—an outcome supported by both teams’ current forms and statistical profiles—and anticipate a final score that may be below expectations for combined totals due to defensive efforts from both sides.