Crystal Palace @ Southampton - April 2, 2025

Ah, the sweet smell of midweek Premier League action is in the air! I can already feel the adrenaline coursing through my veins as Southampton prepares to host Crystal Palace in what promises to be a fascinating clash. Now, if you’ve been around the betting game as long as I have, you’ll know that sometimes, the numbers paint a picture that’s hard to ignore.

Let’s dive into some of the stats, shall we? Southampton has been struggling at the bottom of the Premier League table, currently sitting in 20th place with a dismal record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 24 losses. Their scoring numbers are troubling; they average a mere 0.7 goals per game, with just around 9 shots and less than 3 on target. Their passing accuracy looks decent at about 83%, but you can’t help but scratch your head when you realize they still commit an average of 12 fouls per match. If there’s anything we can take from their last outing, it’s that they’ve been leaking like a sinking ship, coming off a loss against Wolverhampton, where they conceded multiple goals.

On the flip side, we’ve got Crystal Palace, hovering in a much more comfortable position at 12th place with 10 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses. They have a much more robust attacking presence, averaging 1.3 goals per game with about 14 shots, and close to 5 on target. Their passing percentage is lower than Southampton’s at just over 74%, but they also commit fewer fouls at roughly 11 per match. Coming off a solid 1-0 victory over Ipswich, they’ll be brimming with confidence heading into this match.

Now, here’s where my years of betting wisdom kick in. Given the current form of both sides, I’m leaning heavily towards predicting a win for Crystal Palace. Let’s be real; the odds are stacked in their favor at -105, which, in this case, is a price you just can’t ignore. But before you throw your money down, let’s talk about the draw which opened at 250. If Southampton wants to pull off a shocker, they’ll have to muster every ounce of willpower they’ve got, along with a hefty slice of luck. The draw is tempting, but I just don’t see it happening with the current trajectories of these teams.

As for the over/under, I believe it’ll fall under 2.5 goals. With Southampton’s woeful scoring stats and a Palace side that may control possession rather than go for a full-on assault, I’m seeing a potential 1-0 or at most a low-scoring affair. It’s risky business with these under bets, but my gut is practically screaming under.

So there you have it, folks. Crystal Palace should be able to walk away with the three points and keep Southampton firmly rooted at the bottom. As always, make sure to play smart and trust your instincts—can’t rely solely on stats, there’s luck involved too, much like the rituals I’ve held onto through the years. Good luck out there!