Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers - April 11, 2025

As the Atlanta Hawks prepare to face off against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center, there’s a palpable sense of anticipation for what this matchup could bring. The Hawks enter this game as significant -9.5-point favorites, and I expect them to not only win but also cover that spread.

Analyzing both teams’ offensive capabilities sheds light on why I believe the Hawks will prevail. Atlanta boasts an impressive scoring average of 117.9 points per game with a field goal percentage of 47.2%. They are also adept from beyond the arc, shooting at a rate of 35.5%, which can stretch any defense thin. In contrast, Philadelphia has struggled offensively this season, averaging just 109.5 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.6%. This discrepancy in scoring output provides a clear advantage for Atlanta.

When we look at assists—an indicator of team play and ball movement—the Hawks excel further with an average of nearly 29.5 assists per game compared to Philadelphia’s modest 23.2 assists per contest. This suggests that Atlanta is not only scoring more but doing so through effective teamwork and sharing the basketball.

Defensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but again, the numbers favor Atlanta slightly in terms of rebounding and steals—44.3 rebounds per game versus Philadelphia’s 39.4 and about one steal more (9.7 vs 9.2). However, both squads struggle with turnovers; Atlanta averages around 15.5 while Philly sits at approximately 13.5.

The trend lines for these two teams heading into Friday night paint a stark picture: Atlanta has been inconsistent recently but still managed to cover spreads effectively when favored (they covered -13 against Brooklyn last outing), whereas Philadelphia has had an abysmal run with just one win in their last thirteen games (1-12 SU) and struggling mightily against the spread (3-9 ATS in their last twelve).

Now let’s talk totals—oddsmakers opened this game’s total at a hefty 240 points which initially seems high given both teams’ recent trends towards overs; however, I anticipate that tonight’s matchup may actually lean toward being under due to defensive adjustments by Atlanta combined with Philadelphia’s offensive struggles.

In conclusion, my prediction sees the Hawks defeating the struggling Sixers comfortably while covering that -9.5 point spread as they continue to assert themselves as one of the stronger offensive units in the league despite some inconsistencies lately—a reflection not just in raw numbers but also in how they execute on both ends of the court compared to their opponents tonight who have faced significant challenges throughout this season.